MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 12:08 AM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...426
FXUS64 KMOB 290508
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1208 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
- Moderate to strong northeasterly winds may occasionally create
hazardous conditions for small craft well offshore from tonight
through Friday night, and for most of the marine area from
Saturday through Monday.
- A moderate risk of rip currents is expected for beach areas
through Friday, with a High Risk this weekend.
- Rain returns to the area this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Through Sunday...an upper low over the Caribbean opens before moving
off beginning Friday. A surface ridge over the Gulf builds a bit
north through the end of the week as an upper level shortwave
trough moves northeast over the Desert Southwest and Southern
Plains. Shortwave energy from this upper trough passes over the
Southeast Saturday into Sunday. A very dry airmass that had passed
over the forecast area today moves off, with moisture levels
slowly rising through late Friday, then faster Friday night into
Saturday as low level flow over the northern Gulf coast and
Southeast shifts to easterly, then more southeasterly. This
allows better Atlantic and Gulf moisture to move inland. Moisture
returns vary through Saturday afternoon (between 1.2" and 1.6" on
average), but with the more organized southeasterly flow returning
Saturday night as the bulk of the shortwave energy passes,
moisture levels rise into the 1.7"-2.0" range by sunrise Sunday.
Guidance is consistent in the best rain chances being between noon
Saturday and noon Sunday. The quick passage of the system and
consistently dry conditions will help to temper any water issues.
If there is, poor drainage areas along and south of I-10 is
shaping up to be the area most affected. Looking at strong to
severe storms, instability is modest at best (MLCapes topping at
around 1000J/kg) and bulk wind shear is nothing to write home
about (topping out between 25 and 30kts). Helicity is also on the
low side (0-1km values less than 50m^2/s^2), so the risk of
organized storms is expected to be low.
Temperatures remain above seasonal norms through Saturday before the
bulk of the rain moves in, with high temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s expected. For Sunday, rain cooling and decreased daytime
heating will limit high temperatures to 70s (lower 70s northeast).
Low temperatures rise, with the increase in moisture helping to
counterbalance the current good overnight radiational cooling. Low
temperatures in the low to mid 40s north of Highway 84 tonight
rise into the upper 50s north of Highway 84 to upper 60s closer to
the coast over the weekend.
Sunday night through Wednesday...A closed upper low approaches the
Southeast through Wednesday. Path and speed are a bit hard to pin
down, with an upper ridge preceding the closed low's approach.
The passing upper ridge will keep temperatures above seasonal
norms. The timing of the upper low is making the return of rain to
the forecast area a bit of challenge. This forecast is based on
guidance saying late Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Taking a look at the Rip Risk on area beaches, a Moderate Risk of
rip currents is maintained through the rest of the week, with an
uptick to High in the coming weekend as winds over the Gulf take a
more southeasterly shift, increasing swell making it to area beaches.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
VFR conditions with northeast to easterly winds expected through the
forecast.
/16
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Light to moderate northeasterly winds prevails through Friday,
occasionally becoming stronger well offshore. A moderate to
occasionally strong and mostly easterly flow follows for Saturday
through Monday.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 81 59 82 63 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 81 65 81 68 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 82 66 82 68 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 81 55 81 61 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 81 53 81 58 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 79 53 79 59 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 82 59 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 12:08 AM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...---------------
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