IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 3:05 AM EDT749
FXUS63 KIND 290705
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
305 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably high temperatures in the 70s to near 80 expected
today.
- Cooler but still mild on Friday and Saturday.
- Rain chances return Saturday Night into Sunday.
- Mild and wetter pattern likely next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in
place over the east coast, extending its influence far southwest,
into the deep south and through the Ohio Valley. A cold front was
stretching from WI across eastern IA to KS. Strong high pressure was
found in the wake of the front over the Dakotas and MT. GOES19 shows
a thin area of clouds along and ahead of the front over WI and IL.
Some limited precipitation was found along the front.
Aloft, mainly a zonal flow was in place and water vapor showed
subsidence in place ahead and in the wake of the front. Water vapor
showed a thin band of moisture associated with the frontal boundary.
Dew points were in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Today...
The zonal flow aloft will remain in place today, quickly pushing the
main upper trough over western Ontario east. As this occurs, the
associated cold front will become elongated and best forcing
dynamics looks to pass well to the north of Indiana. HRRR suggests
some isolated late afternoon showers will be possible mainly in the
OKK-LAF areas as the front passes, but confidence for this remains
rather low. Only small chances may be included and most locations
will remain dry. The noticeable things in the weather today will be
an occasional wind gust this afternoon ahead of the front and the
warm air mass ahead of the front. The southwest winds will allow for
good mixing and high temperatures will reach the upper 70s. A few
80s are not our of the question. Expect mainly a mostly sunny day as
forecast soundings remain dry. However, clouds will arrive late this
afternoon and evening as the front arrives and passes.
Friday and Saturday...
The zonal upper flow wanes on Friday as ridging begins to develop
over the Mississippi Valley and builds across Indiana through
Saturday. Within the lower levels, strong high pressure in the wake
of Today/s front will push across the Great lakes and reach middle
Atlantic states on Saturday. This large high will continue to
dominate the weather across the eastern half of the country,
providing mainly dry weather. Forecast soundings are on board with
this, showing a dry column on both Friday and Saturday. Highs on
these days will be a bit cooler than Today due to the arrival of the
new, cooler, Canadian high pressure system, but still remain well
above normals.
Sunday through Wednesday...
A more active weather pattern is expected to take shape late this
weekend and into early next week. The upper level pattern is
suggested to the become more progressive and southwesterly as a warm
and moist subtropical jet stream across the southwestern United
States and into the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys takes shape.
A first wave looks to pass on Saturday night into Sunday. Forecast
soundings at that point shows a deeply saturated column with pwats
over 1.25 inches.
Models are differing a bit on the timing of an deep upper trough
pushing through the NW parts of the country on Monday through
Wednesday. Nonetheless, the southwest flow aloft looks to push
embedded short waves and forcing dynamics into Indiana on Monday
through Wednesday. Again, forecast soundings each of these days
suggest deep saturation and high pwats.
Within the lower levels during this time, large high pressure looks
to be set up east of the mid Atlantic states on Sunday, still
dominating the weather across the eastern half of the country.
However, warmer and humid southerly flow will be in across Indiana,
essentially starting an overrunning situation as the upper forcing
begins to arrive. By Tuesday and Wednesday, strong low pressure
associated with the approaching upper trough is shown to develop
over the Plains states, continuing to provide lift and forcing.
Again, models differ a bit with the progression and orientation of
the system, but still plenty of ingredients as listed above remain
present to include chances for rain.
No significant intrusions of cold air is expected, thus above normal
temperatures with highs in the 60s will continue to be expected.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1241 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Impacts:
- Southerly winds becoming NW to N late in the period.
- Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions are expected.
Discussion:
Southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front will be in place
across Indiana today. Forecast soundings though the day suggest a
dry column, with perhaps some low VFR cigs with the cold front
passage late in the afternoon and early evening. Winds will shift
from the south to the northwest in the wake of the front.
Forecast soundings quickly return to a dry column after 04Z as a new
high pressure system arrives with northerly winds.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Puma
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 3:05 AM EDT---------------
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