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798 FXUS64 KLIX 271754AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1254 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1220 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026- Elevated fire danger will continue through at least Thursday. The ongoing drought conditions and dry fuels combined with low humidity and light to moderate winds will lead to potential for some fire spread. Residents should obey all burn bans in place and exercise extreme caution with any open flames outdoors even in areas that do not currently have burn bans in place.- Although winds will ease today into early Wednesday, wind speeds are expected rise once again over most of the coastal waters causing additional small craft advisories later this week. &&.SHORT TERM...(Now through Friday night)Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026The ridge axis that has dominated the region for the past severaldays has started to shift to the east today and will continue todo so tomorrow as a a weak shortwave trough slides through theLower Mississippi Valley. Persistent east- northeast low levelwinds have limited any form of moisture return as noted bydewpoints in the 50s both today and tomorrow, so cloud developmentwill be extremely limited as the shortwave trough slides through.As a result, continued dry weather conditions will remain in place across the area through tomorrow. Thursday will see a brief period of shortwave ridging build in behind the departing trough axis. This will help to reinforce the clear skies and dry conditions we have seen the past several days. Given the continuedhigh bias of the deterministic NBM output, have opted to use NBM 10th percentile values for dewpoints through tomorrow. Temperatures will maintain the larger than average diurnal range with highs easily warming into the upper 70s and lower 80s before quickly cooling a good 25 to 30 degrees during the overnight hours. As we move into Friday and Friday night, the pattern will shifttoward a more unsettled weather regime. This will be due to thedevelopment of a low pressure along a nascent front over thesouthern Plains in Friday. This low will form beneath a developingjet streak that forms in advance of an approaching southern streamtrough axis. As the surface low strengthens, winds will shift to the southeast and allow for Gulf moisture to feed back into the area. Precipitable water values will surge to near the 90th percentile by Friday afternoon and will then continue to rise to around 2 inches by Friday night. Although overall moisture contentwill become more favorable to rain to form, forcing aloft willremain limited and instability will be minimal. At best, someisolated showers could form along the immediate coast of Louisianaby Friday afternoon, but most of the region will remain drythrough Friday night. Temperatures will climb back into the low80s Friday afternoon, but the increasing humidity will keep lowswarmer in the 60s for Friday night. &&.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Monday night)Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026Although the rainfall is much needed after a dry few weeks, thetiming is not great for Halloween festivities Saturday intoSaturday night as southern stream trough axis slides through the area. Ample deep layer forcing will combine with a moderately unstable atmosphere to produce scattered to numerous showers and afew thunderstorms. The thunderstorm risk has increased fromprevious thinking as the cold pool with the trough axis is bitmore stout than expected. This allow mid-level lapse rates tosteepen to around 6.0 to 6.5 C/KM resulting in overall SBCAPEvalues rising to between 1000 and 1500 J/KG for Saturday afternoonand evening. Given that precipitable water values will be in the 2inch range, and that deeper convection is not expected, a fewlocations could see over an inch of rainfall before Sunday morning rolls around. Fortunately, shear values will remain weakwith this system, so severe storms are still not expected forHalloween. The trough axis will quickly pull to the east on Sunday and asouthern stream shortwave ridge will build over the region byMonday. Increasing negative vorticity advection and subsidencealoft will both dry and warm the mid to upper levels resulting inthe formation of a mid-level capping inversion and the end of anyrain chances by Sunday afternoon. Onshore flow will keep humidityvalues up, and some fair weather cumulus development is expectedfor Monday. However, the strong mid-level cap will keep rainchances at less than 10 percent. Temperatures will be a bit warmerthan average beneath the upper level high with values rising intothe low to mid 80s Monday afternoon. &&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026High pressure will keep dry and stable conditions in place at allof the terminals. At most some passing high level cirrus isexpected. Winds will remain out of the east and northeast and VFRconditions will be the rule through tomorrow afternoon. &&.MARINE...Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026A strong surface high will remain centered over the Mid-Atlantic region today. At the same time, a broad low pressure system will persist over Florida. This will maintain a tighter pressure gradient across the northern Gulf with easterly winds remaining elevated at around 15 knots across most of the coastal waters today and tomorrow. Periods of small craft advisory headlines will likely be needed on Thursday and Friday as easterly winds increase back to 20 to 25 knots and seas of rise above 7 feet. Some minor coastal flooding issues on east facing shores could also arise during high tides at the end of the week.&&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...PGLONG TERM....PGAVIATION...PGMARINE...PG
