PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 12:51 PM EDT110
FXUS61 KPBZ 281651
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1251 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rainfall potential north of I-80 Thursday night has increased
slightly. Also, expected rainfall totals during the Sunday-
Monday period continue their downward trend.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Quiet weather and above-average temperatures continue. Light
rain possible north of I-80 Thursday night. Rain potential
Sunday into Monday is decreasing.
2) Better chances of a wetting rain arrive next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Largely dry weather is still forecast to linger through Saturday
as large-scale surface high pressure persists. Temperatures
today and Thursday will run some 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
A mid-level shortwave passage this afternoon is only providing
increased cloud cover.
Come Thursday night/Friday morning, a weak cold front is still
progged to drop across the region. As this event has come into
the range of the CAMs, precipitation potential north of
Pittsburgh has increased slightly as moisture from Lake Erie
becomes involved. Still, any rainfall is most likely to remain
under a tenth of an inch.
Rainfall potential later Sunday into Monday continues to
decrease, as models are now trending weaker with an Ohio Valley
disturbance tracking south of the main 500mb ridge axis. A
system that appeared to be capable of producing a soaking
rainfall a few days ago, now has a 30 percent or less chance of
producing 0.10" in our area.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Ensembles continue to converge on the idea of a strong closed
500mb low over the central CONUS by 12Z Tuesday. After that
point, the low ejects northeastward towards the Great Lakes, and
there is disagreement regarding the strength and timing of the
resulting shortwave. However, there is still a notable chance of
a wetting rainfall. Ensemble probabilities for an inch or more
of rain are still in the 20-30 percent range for the LREF suite,
while NBM probabilities are a bit higher. No flooding threats
are anticipated given the recent dry stretch, but such amounts
could mitigate any building fire weather concerns.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions and light winds are expected for much of the
next 24 hours. However, light winds and clear skies point
towards fog development again tonight. TEMPOs have been included
at FKL, DUJ and BVI, where model agreement on impacts is
highest. Models do have lower probabilities down towards PIT and
AGC but confidence is lower here.
Late Thursday night, a passing cold front over the Great Lakes
may return cig restrictions mainly to the northern ports.
Outlook...
Light rain is expected to return late Sunday into Monday with
large-scale disturbance.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CL
AVIATION...AK
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 12:51 PM EDT---------------
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