PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 6:02 PM CDT803
FXUS63 KPAH 272302
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
602 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions with warm days and cool nights will continue
through the work week.
- Chances of showers return to the region this weekend, with the
best chances Saturday evening into Sunday when a few
thunderstorms will be possible. Additional chances will
linger into early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Updated Aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
A weak cold front will wash out Thursday as it approaches the
Quad State from the northwest, but it will lead to a surge of
surface high pressure across the region Friday. That will switch
winds to the east or southeast and lead to slightly less hot
conditions. The warmest day of the week should be Thursday when
there is a 40-60% of reaching 80 degrees over the western 2/3 of
the area.
Guidance continues to bounce around on the QPF timing and
location this weekend. It looks like the heavier rain, in the
vicinity of half an inch will hold off until late Saturday
evening through Sunday morning. There is some meager
instability, so thunder has returned to portions of the region
Saturday night and in the northeast on Sunday morning. Ensembles
indicate that any rain over southeast Missouri Saturday
afternoon or evening should be under a tenth of an inch.
This is a tropical remnant and the ensembles continue to
indicate precipitable water values at or above 200% of normal
for this time of year. That certainly is reason to keep an eye
out for more significant rainfall. There is a greater than 30%
chance of 1" or more of rainfall mainly over west Kentucky, and
even a 5-10% chance of 2".
This system should push east of the Quad State Sunday afternoon,
leaving the area dry later Sunday through much of Monday. There
is a fairly strong consensus for upper-level energy to dive
southeast through the Rockies and into the Plains by Tuesday.
This system helps usher in a fairly amplified pattern, which
should allow the system to hang out for a while. There is
considerable uncertainty in what latitude the system will set up
over the Plains, which will have significant impact on when it
will bring precipitation to the Quad State. The NBM has small
chance PoPs beginning Monday afternoon, with 40-50% chances
Monday night into next Tuesday. There are some slight chances
of thunder thrown in at times, as well, but there is a lot to
settle out in the mass fields before we get concerned about the
details of any convection.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 559 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
High cirrus cloud coverage will relax tonight. With clear
skies, full boundary layer saturation, and calm winds, shallow
ground fog will once again develop. The most impactful fog (MVFR
restrictions) will be at the climatologically-favored terminals
(CGI and MVN) around daybreak before quickly diminishing. Calm
winds overnight will pick up after 13z from the S around 3-5
kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DWS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 6:02 PM CDT---------------
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