JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 3:14 PM EDT876
FXUS63 KJKL 261914
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
314 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly to partly sunny skies, mild days, and chilly nights
persist through the end of the work week.
- Light, patchy frost may develop tonight in the area's most
sheltered valleys. Fog is more likely near the area's main stem
rivers and lakes.
- Rain chances increase as the calendar changes to November this
weekend, so interests with outdoor Halloween plans are
encouraged to continue monitoring for forecast updates.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
Fog lingers in some valley locations mainly along rivers, larger
creeks, and lakes. This fog should lift and dissipate within the
next hour or so and give way to mostly sunny to sunny skies in
all areas with just high clouds passing overhead. Above normal
high temperatures, similar to what has occurred over the past
couple of days or generally the low to mid 70s, are anticipated.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday evening)
Issued at 607 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026
Seasonably pleasant temperatures and dry sensible weather conditions
are expected to continue across Eastern Kentucky for the first few
days of the new work week, as models depict only minor changes to
the antecedent ridging pattern in the coming days. While the
northern periphery of the ridge is progged to flatten out over the
next 24 hours, the forecast area should remain firmly under its
influence for the duration of the short term forecast period. The
forecast guidance suite does not resolve meaningful height falls
over the JKL CWA as this pattern shift occurs. Rather, it
collectively keeps 500mb geopotential heights in the 586-588
decameter range over the forecast area through Tuesday evening.
These are similar values to what was resolved across the region
earlier this weekend, and the core of this feature should remain
just to our south in the Tennessee River Valley. Subsequent map
analysis reveals the continued presence of a ridge axis across the
forecast area in this time frame. The synoptic-scale subsidence
downstream of that axis will help sustain the surface anticyclone
currently in place across the Southern Appalachians, which, in turn,
will keep surface winds light/variable and the lower levels of the
column quite dry. Thus, the only meaningful change in the synoptic
weather set up over the coming days will be a gradual shift towards
westerly flow aloft.
Persistence forecasting prevails accordingly, and today's forecast
looking like it was copied and pasted from yesterday's. The pattern
continues to favor efficient diurnal warming/mixing processes, and
Eastern Kentucky is poised to wake up to the typical areas of valley
fog and ridge-valley temperature splits this morning. That fog
should burn off by mid morning as mixing takes root and valley
temperatures quickly climb out of the mid/upper 30s. Most places
should see temperatures in the 60s by midday, along with a subtle
increase in cirrus-type clouds high in the sky. These clouds can be
attributed to the shift towards westerly flow aloft, but they
shouldn't be thick enough to mute the diurnal heating curve. Expect
widespread highs in the low/mid 70s once again. Such values are
above climatological averages for late October in Eastern Kentucky,
but record highs are not in danger. The previously-discussed modeled
geopotential height values rank above the 95th percentile of model
climatology. While this provides yet another piece of evidence
favoring above-normal highs, it also suggests that this pattern is
not particularly anomalous.
The typical autumn-time conditions carry over into the forecast for
tonight and Tuesday. Expect another night of ridge-valley
temperature splits and valley fog formation. While some patchy frost
cannot be ruled out in the most sheltered/shaded hollows, the
increased daytime warmth will favor fog over frost in most places.
Dewpoints are unlikely to drop mix out to values lower than the
upper 30s during peak diurnal mixing, making it harder to get
temperatures cold enough for frost after dark. Valley lows are
forecast to bottom out in that upper 30s range tomorrow night,
making it more likely to see crossover temperatures that favor fog
over frost. Confidence in fog formation is highest along the area's
larger lakes and rivers, and the area's ridgetop locales are
unlikely to see either of these nocturnal weather phenomena. There,
temperatures there will likely remain in the upper 40s. Tuesday's
forecast is similar to what is outlined in the above paragraph,
except there is a bit more uncertainty in the forecast highs. The
previously-described synoptics will subtly shift a bit further east
headed into Tuesday evening, which will allow the flow aloft to
adopt a more west-southwesterly orientation. This could yield
relatively thicker cloud coverage on Tuesday afternoon, but it also
corresponds with subtle warm air advection. Thus, there are
competing factors at play. The dry lower levels mean that those
clouds are unlikely to produce precipitation, but if the thicker
cloud coverage is able to interrupt the diurnal heating curve,
Tuesday's high temperatures could under-perform the blended baseline
guidance used to populate the forecast grids. Likewise, if the
clouds stick around into the overnight hours, they could stifle fog
development and limit the amount of thermal decoupling. Aside from
these minor nuances, tomorrow's forecast looks more of the same old,
same old. Expect above-normal afternoon highs in the 70s (just maybe
the lower 70s this time) and light winds amidst some mid/upper level
cloud cover.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
At the onset of the extended period Wednesday, an anomalously
high-amplitude upper-level ridge will remain anchored across the
Southeast, while broad longwave troughing dominates the western
CONUS. Across eastern Kentucky, 500 mb heights near 585 dam sit
within the 90th to 95th climatological percentile, highlighting the
unseasonable nature of this pattern. At the surface, light
southeasterly winds will gradually veer to the south and southwest as
high pressure shifts offshore. A passing weak shortwave aloft will
bring an increase in mid-and high-level cloudiness on Wednesday,
followed by clearing late in the day as the wave exits. Afternoon
temperatures should warm into the lower 70s. With calm winds, dry
air, and clear skies, strong nocturnal radiational cooling will
support pronounced ridge-valley temperature splits Wednesday
night. Sheltered valleys should dip into the low-to-mid 40s, while
thermal belt ridges hold in the upper 40s, near 50F. Some patchy
river valley fog should also develop.
Thursday through Friday, the upper ridge axis broadens and expands
northward into the Ohio Valley, allowing deep-layer subsidence to
peak and maintaining mostly clear skies. Surface high pressure will
shift directly overhead across the central Appalachians,
strengthening to around 1024 mb by Friday morning. Daytime warming
under ample sunshine should push afternoon highs into the low to
mid-70s each day - roughly 5 to 10 degrees above late-October
normals.
Saturday through Monday, the upper ridge flattens into more
progressive southwest flow aloft. Meanwhile, strong surface high
pressure holds along the East Coast through Sunday, keeping the
approaching cold front stalled well to our west across the Plains and
Upper Midwest. This keeps eastern Kentucky firmly in the warm sector,
where persistent southerly flow will pump unseasonable moisture into
the region. Precipitable water values are expected to surge into the
90th climatological percentile from November 1st onward, peaking
around 1.2 to 1.3 inches on Sunday.
Subtle shortwaves rippling through the flow aloft interacting with
this rich moisture will lead to rain chances starting Saturday
afternoon, with precipitation chances peaking on Sunday around 60%.
The front finally edges closer heading into Monday before petering
out, allowing PoPs to taper down to around 20% by Monday afternoon.
Highs will hold in the low-to-mid 70s Saturday, then trim back a bit
for Sunday and Monday under widespread clouds and scattered rain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
The axis of an upper level ridge extending from the western Gulf
into the OH Valley region will shift into the southeastern Conus
through the period with sfc high pressure also extending across
the region. This will lead to periods of high clouds crossing the
area, but winds are expected to remain light. Valley fog should
once again develop along the larger rivers, largest creeks, and
lakes and lead to reductions to MVFR to IFR during the 04Z to 12Z
period, if not locally lower reductions near 12Z. This fog could
lift into and affect a couple of the TAF sites with recent
guidance somewhat consistent on KSME being affected with
reductions near 12Z. Based on this and persistence, opted to
include a tempo group there with MVFR reductions. VFR should
return areawide by 15Z as the valley fog lifts and dissipates.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...MARCUS
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 3:14 PM EDT---------------
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