JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 3:13 PM EDT316
FXUS63 KJKL 251913
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
313 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly to partly sunny skies, mild days, and chilly nights
persist through at least midweek.
- Light, patchy frost may develop tonight and Monday night in
sheltered valleys away from the area's lakes, rivers, and larger
creeks. Fog is more likely near those bodies of water.
- The next chances for rain enter the forecast as the calendar
changes to November, so interests with outdoor Halloween plans
are encouraged to monitor for forecast updates this week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 249 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
This afternoon, a 500 mb trough/upper low was centered to the
east of the eastern seaboard while an upper level ridge extended
from the western Gulf to the Lower OH Valley region. With eastern
KY to the east of the axis of the ridge, northerly flow is occurring
aloft. Meanwhile further north, an upper low was moving from
Hudson Bay into Quebec with a shortwave trough axis extending into
the northern Great Lakes. Another shortwave extended across
portions of Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Further west and southwest,
an upper low was nearing the Four Corners region. At the surface,
a ridge of high pressure was centered along the mid Atlantic
coast and extended into the Appalachians and the OH Valley and
into much of the Southeast. A frontal zone extended from Quebec
into the Great Lakes to sections of the central Plains to the
Rockies. Skies were sunny with temperatures as of 2 PM were mainly
in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Tonight into Monday, the axis of upper troughing initially near and
to the east of the eastern seaboard is progged to gradually shift
east, while the axis of the 500 mb ridge shifts across eastern KY.
500 mb heights over eastern KY peak late this afternoon/evening,
though the ridge has already started to flatten. This flattening
will occur as the upper level low moves into Quebec to the east of
Hudson Bay and merges with the previously mentioned shortwaves to
carve out a trough over eastern portions of Canada into the
Northeast. As this occurs, the associated frontal zone should near
the St Lawrence Valley to southern sections of the Great Lakes to
eastern Co and then drop across the Northeast and portions of the
Mid Atlantic and also slipping south of the Great Lakes and
approaching the OH Valley by late Monday. The southward progression
of this front should be slowed and eventually stalled as the upper
low that is currently nearing the Four Corners region weakens to an
open wave as it reaches the Plains and interacts with and results in
a sfc low developing further west along the boundary. That sfc low
tracks across portions of the Central to Northern Plains. Meanwhile,
the 500 mb ridge will become centered in the Gulf to Southeast as
the period ends. Sfc high pressure will remain centered in the
Southern Appalachians.
The mid and upper level ridging will remain the dominant weather
feature in the short term even though the ridge axis slips southeast
and there will be a trend of height falls across eastern KY. The
upper flow will also become westerly tonight and remain west to
southwest through the end of the period. Some high clouds should
cross the area from time to time, especially from midday Monday
onward. Adjustments were made downward from NBM deterministic for
dewpoints, especially during peak mixing through Monday afternoon.
Ridge/valley splits were added to min T grids for tonight and Monday
night and continued persistence of lows reaching the upper 30s to
around 40, with mid 30s for the typical cold spots/sheltered valleys
away from larger bodies of water. For both nights, fog development
along rivers, larger creeks, and lakes is anticipated both nights,
with the more sheltered valleys away from these bodies of water
potentially experiencing a light frost.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
At the start of the long term period, a 500 mb ridge will be
centered over the eastern CONUS, with troughing over the West.
Initially, a shortwave will be lifting northeast along the
periphery of this ridge, with another shortwave following closely
behind. By Tuesday evening, these waves will merge, and this
energy will work to flatten the ridge. Flow will become
southwesterly aloft, and though weak ridging looks to attempt to
build in again by the end of the workweek, this pattern change
will be relatively short lived as a more well defined wave
approaches the forecast area by the weekend.
Overall, the weather looks to be very uneventful through the end
of the workweek. At the surface, an area of low pressure will
initially be located in northwest Iowa, although this low will
quickly lift north in accordance with aforementioned shortwave. A
frontal boundary previously stalled over Ohio will also lift north
as a warm front at this time, with no effect on eastern
Kentucky's weather. Instead, surface high pressure to the
southeast will dominate our local forecast, with light
southwesterly winds at the surface. This pattern will allow for
some very modest moisture advection, with surface dewpoints
increasing into the upper 40s in some locations later in the
workweek. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave embedded within
southwesterly flow aloft will move through the area late
Tuesday/early Wednesday, although in the absence of better
moisture, its main impact will be a brief increase in cloud cover.
This will keep lows warmer than in previous days, with valleys
more in the low 40s than the 30s, marking an end to any frost
threat for now, although nightly fog formation is still expected
in typical valley locales. Otherwise, no impactful weather is
expected... only ample sunshine. Highs will be above average but
also pleasant, with temperatures rising into the low to mid 70s
each day and lows in the 40s, with moderate ridge/valley
temperature splits developing overnight.
A more notable pattern shift looks to arrive next weekend as a
more well defined shortwave pushes its way northeast toward the
forecast area. A moist air mass will settle over eastern Kentucky,
with LREF mean PW values increasing to around 1" by late
Saturday. Around this time, PoPs begin to tick up. Nonetheless,
the vast majority of LREF members keep Halloween evening dry, with higher
confidence in rain on Sunday as LREF mean PW values peak in the
1.2-1.3" range. Even so, the exact timing of this system remains
uncertain, and will require some refining in subsequent forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
A ridge of high pressure will remain in place from the Gulf into
the OH Valley and Appalachians through the period. This will
result in primarily VFR for much of the period, with only a few
passing high clouds from time to time. Winds will also remain
light. Valley fog formation along the larger creeks, rivers, and
lakes is anticipated again between about 04Z and 14Z and
reductions to IFR or lower are possible. Some of the guidance
including LAMP and Consshort suggests KSME may be affected with
some MVFR reductions for a couple of hours near 12Z. Confidence in
this was not high enough to include at this point and kept the
persistence forecast of fog not affecting the TAF sites. What fog
that develops should lift and dissipate by 15Z and give way to
VFR to end the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 3:13 PM EDT---------------
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