JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 7:42 AM EDT505
FXUS63 KJKL 251142
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
742 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Persistence forecasting prevails through much of the upcoming
work week, with mostly to partly sunny skies, mild days, and
chilly nights expected.
- Light, patchy frost may develop early this morning and then
again on Sunday and Monday nights in sheltered valleys away from
the area's lakes, rivers, and larger creeks. Fog is more likely
near those bodies of water.
- The next chances for rain enter the forecast as the calendar
changes to November, so interests with outdoor Halloween plans
are encouraged to monitor for forecast updates this week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 356 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
The mid/upper level ridging that has dominated Eastern Kentucky's
sensible weather forecast for the past few days is forecast to peak
in both intensity and proximity today. The forecast guidance suite
remains in remarkably good agreement that this ridge's axis will
propagate further east into the commonwealth as the day progresses,
leading to synoptic-scale subsidence and dry northerly flow
throughout the downstream atmospheric column. The resultant mostly
clear skies favor ample solar insolation and efficient diurnal
warming/mixing. Once any early-AM river valley fog burns off and the
boundary layer re-couples, temperatures should quickly rise out of
the 30s and 40s. Modeled 500mb geopotential height rises (towards
the 588 dam mark) suggest that high temperatures could be relatively
warmer than they were yesterday, and widespread afternoon highs in
the mid 70s appear plausible. Such a temperature forecast ranks well
above the climatological averages for late October in Eastern
Kentucky, but tomorrow's geopotential heights rank above the 95th
percentile of model climatology. This gives credence to the forecast
for above-normal temperatures, but we are not even close to breaking
any temperature records.
Rather, today looks to be a pleasant day for getting outside and
enjoying any planned autumnal activities. The antecedently dry
airmass will only be further reinforced by the synoptics described
above, and persistence forecasting suggests that afternoon dewpoints
could undercut the baseline model blend used to populate the
forecast grids. As that drier air mixes down, it will make for
fantastic "feels-like" temperatures across the area. While the
effects of this mixing will make the daytime sensible weather
forecast more pleasant, this afternoon's dewpoint trends will still
need to be monitored closely as it pertains to Monday morning's
fog/frost forecast. Minute differences in those crossover
temperatures make forecasting these two overnight sensible weather
conditions tricky. Persistence forecasting suggests that the fine
line between the two will come down to access to localized moisture
sources like lakes, main stem rivers, and larger streams. As such,
have maintained overnight valley fog in the grids for the area's
populated river valleys and included a patchy frost for the
sheltered/shaded hollows and other low-lying rural areas. Expect
similar temperatures on Monday morning as what we observe across the
area this AM, with valley lows in the mid/upper 30s and ridgetops
remaining in the 40s.
Monday's temperature forecast is pretty much a copy-paste of
Sunday's, as the antecedent ridging will remain firmly in place
across the Commonwealth. Models collectively show that feature
flattening by Monday evening though. This shift will cause the
midlevel flow to become more westerly, which, in turn, will lead to
marginally higher amounts of moisture in the atmospheric column. So,
expect upper-level cloud cover to increase from west to east in the
latter stages of the forecast period. These clouds shouldn't be
thick enough to flatten Monday's diurnal temperature curve, as highs
should still warm into the low/mid 70s area-wide. The resultant
increase in atmospheric scattering could make for a pretty sunset
though... If any photographers are reading this, feel free to tag us
in your dual sunset/fall foliage pictures on our @NWSJacksonKY
social media pages!
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
The long-term period opens Monday evening with a flattening 500
hPa ridge extending from the Gulf of America northward across the
Commonwealth and beyond to the Upper Great Lakes, then northwest
into Central Canada. At the surface, the remnant of a former high
will be situated over the Central Appalachians, separated from a
stronger ~1034 mb surface high over Northern Ontario by a cold
front. That frontal boundary extends southwestward from a low over
the Labrador Sea, passing along the southern shores of the Great
Lakes to a weak surface low over Nebraska. Aloft, the Nebraskan low
is supported by a shortwave trough ejecting northeast out of a
broader parent trough over the West Coast and Intermountain West.
A second embedded shortwave trough is located over the Pacific
Northwest.
The first shortwave trough will merge with the second and eject
northeast into Central Canada through Wednesday, taking the
surface low with them and pulling the stalled front back north of
the Ohio Valley. The main effect from those features will be to
significantly flatten the ridge residing over the Commonwealth. An
area of energy likely ejects northeast and eventually crosses
eastern Kentucky as an upper-level disturbance late Tuesday into
Wednesday, bringing mid-and high-level moisture (likely
manifesting as just an uptick in cloud cover at most). Behind that
disturbance, the leftover broad ridging over the eastern CONUS
will remain nearly steady state or strengthen slight through
Friday. Surface high pressure scoots southeast to off the New
England Coast by Wednesday evening and then builds southwestward
into the Central/Southern Appalachians through ~12Z Friday.
Thereafter, a much more substantial shortwave ejects northeast
next weekend with a plume of Gulf moisture (PWATs surge back
above an inch and likely exceed the 90th percentile of climo for
this time of year). The return of deep moisture with this feature
will manifest as thickening cloud cover heralding rising rain
chances late in the day on Saturday--potentially more of a trick
rather than a treat given the delightful weather of late.
Outside of the periods of thicker cloud cover mentioned, dry air
will allow for efficient radiational cooling and substantial ~10F
ridge-valley splits each night. Temperatures may be just cold
enough for one more night of patchy frost in the coldest hollows
on Monday night. Otherwise, slightly milder temperatures should
hopefully preclude further patchy frost. However, conditions will
remain favorable for nighttime fog formation in the typically
favored valley locales.
Thus in sensible weather terms, expect mostly clear skies for
much of the upcoming week outside of a period of greater cloud
cover Tuesday into Wednesday and again heading through Saturday.
Additionally, temperatures will slowly moderate, warming from the
mid 70s for highs on Tuesday to the mid to upper 70s by week's
end. Meanwhile, nighttime lows will range from the mid 30s to near
50F on Monday night to the mid 40s to mid 50s by Friday night.
Greater cloud cover on Tuesday night should favor milder temperatures
than what would otherwise be expected in late October. Any rain
chances will hold off until Saturday at the earliest.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Persistence forecasting prevails once again for the 12z TAF
package. Clear skies are noted in this morning's ASOS/AWOS
observations this morning, but, as expected, valley fog has
developed in the vicinity of the area's rivers and lakes. This
morning's fog is not in the immediate vicinity of any TAF sites,
but localized vsby reductions are occurring where it has
developed. A brief reduction cannot be entirely ruled out at
KSME, but the fog around Lake Cumberland appears patchy in
current webcam imagery. Thus, fog is not expected to be the
prevailing condition at any of the TAF sites this morning. All
fog should mix out by mid morning, giving way to mostly clear
skies. A few high clouds may pass aloft, but these will not yield
any meaningful ceilings. So, expect VFR conditions this afternoon
and evening, with light/variable surface winds and another chance
for river valley fog at the tail end of the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MARCUS
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...MARCUS
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 7:42 AM EDT---------------
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