JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 3:22 AM EDT373
FXUS63 KJKL 250722
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
322 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather persists into next week, with mostly clear skies,
mild days, and chilly nights expected.
- Light, patchy frost may develop late tonight and Sunday and
Monday nights in sheltered valleys away from lakes, rivers, and
larger creeks. Fog is more likely near those bodies of water.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 317 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
A 500 mb ridge extended from the western Gulf/Arklatex region into
the eastern Great Lakes to Quebec this afternoon, while troughing
remained just to the east of the eastern seaboard. Further west,
an upper low and troughing were over sections of the western
Conus. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the
northeast to mid Atlantic states and extended into the OH Valley
and Southeast Conus. This is resulting in sunny skies across
eastern KY this afternoon, with temperatures averaging a few
degrees above normal for this point in October. Temperatures were
within a few degrees of yesterdays readings at this point, while
dewpoints in the southwest were a few degrees higher than 24 hours
ago.
The axis of the upper level ridge will remain west of eastern KY
through the rest of the weekend and become centered near the mouth
of the MS River by late Sunday night. This ridge will tend to
flatten as an upper low and shortwave trough move from near the
Saskatchewan/Manitoba to northern Plains area to Ontario and
Quebec crossing sections of the Great Lakes. Further west,
troughing will remain across much of the western Conus. Sfc high
pressure initially centered in the mid Atlantic States will
become centered in the Appalachian region. The pressure gradient
between the sfc high building south near and east of the Appalachians
and lower pressure in the central Conus/Plains will be a bit
stronger for locations near the VA border in the southeastern
portion of the area.
This scenario will result in a continuation of persistence or near
persistence with mild days and rather cool overnight lows
especially in the valleys. Ridge/valley temperature splits will be
favored as well, with ridgetop locations in the mid to upper 40s,
while valleys drop into the upper 30s to around 40 degree range.
A few outlying sheltered valley locations away from the larger
bodies of water may experience patchy frost tonight and/or Sunday
night. Otherwise, along rivers, lakes, and larger creeks, fog
formation is anticipated each night. The areal extent of the fog
in the Big Sandy region may be a bit more limited than typical for
that area tonight to early Sunday, with the slightly stronger
gradient.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
The long-term period opens Monday evening with a flattening 500
hPa ridge extending from the Gulf of America northward across the
Commonwealth and beyond to the Upper Great Lakes, then northwest
into Central Canada. At the surface, the remnant of a former high
will be situated over the Central Appalachians, separated from a
stronger ~1034 mb surface high over Northern Ontario by a cold
front. That frontal boundary extends southwestward from a low over
the Labrador Sea, passing along the southern shores of the Great
Lakes to a weak surface low over Nebraska. Aloft, the Nebraskan low
is supported by a shortwave trough ejecting northeast out of a
broader parent trough over the West Coast and Intermountain West.
A second embedded shortwave trough is located over the Pacific
Northwest.
The first shortwave trough will merge with the second and eject
northeast into Central Canada through Wednesday, taking the
surface low with them and pulling the stalled front back north of
the Ohio Valley. The main effect from those features will be to
significantly flatten the ridge residing over the Commonwealth. An
area of energy likely ejects northeast and eventually crosses
eastern Kentucky as an upper-level disturbance late Tuesday into
Wednesday, bringing mid-and high-level moisture (likely
manifesting as just an uptick in cloud cover at most). Behind that
disturbance, the leftover broad ridging over the eastern CONUS
will remain nearly steady state or strengthen slight through
Friday. Surface high pressure scoots southeast to off the New
England Coast by Wednesday evening and then builds southwestward
into the Central/Southern Appalachians through ~12Z Friday.
Thereafter, a much more substantial shortwave ejects northeast
next weekend with a plume of Gulf moisture (PWATs surge back
above an inch and likely exceed the 90th percentile of climo for
this time of year). The return of deep moisture with this feature
will manifest as thickening cloud cover heralding rising rain
chances late in the day on Saturday--potentially more of a trick
rather than a treat given the delightful weather of late.
Outside of the periods of thicker cloud cover mentioned, dry air
will allow for efficient radiational cooling and substantial ~10F
ridge-valley splits each night. Temperatures may be just cold
enough for one more night of patchy frost in the coldest hollows
on Monday night. Otherwise, slightly milder temperatures should
hopefully preclude further patchy frost. However, conditions will
remain favorable for nighttime fog formation in the typically
favored valley locales.
Thus in sensible weather terms, expect mostly clear skies for
much of the upcoming week outside of a period of greater cloud
cover Tuesday into Wednesday and again heading through Saturday.
Additionally, temperatures will slowly moderate, warming from the
mid 70s for highs on Tuesday to the mid to upper 70s by week's
end. Meanwhile, nighttime lows will range from the mid 30s to near
50F on Monday night to the mid 40s to mid 50s by Friday night.
Greater cloud cover on Tuesday night should favor milder temperatures
than what would otherwise be expected in late October. Any rain
chances will hold off until Saturday at the earliest.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
Persistence forecasting prevails for the 06z TAF package. Clear
skies are noted in the area's ASOS/AWOS observations, but there
some high clouds are noted upstream in satellite imagery. A few of
these cirrus-type clouds may pass over KSME and KLOZ tonight, but
they will not yield any meaningful ceilings. Patchy fog could develop
in Eastern Kentucky's river valleys by dawn, but persistence
suggests that tonight's fog is unlikely to affect the TAF sites.
With that being said, localized vsby reductions will occur around
dawn in places where the fog actually develops. So, satellite and
observational trends will need to be monitored leading into the
12z issuance period. Once any fog mixes out tomorrow morning,
expect mostly clear skies and light/variable winds to return and
then continue through the rest of the forecast period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...MARCUS
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 3:22 AM EDT---------------
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