JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 7:14 PM EDT743
FXUS63 KJKL 242314
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
714 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather persists into next week, with mostly clear skies,
mild days, and chilly nights expected.
- Light, patchy frost may develop late tonight and Sunday and
Monday nights in sheltered valleys away from lakes, rivers, and
larger creeks. Fog is more likely near those bodies of water.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 317 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
A 500 mb ridge extended from the western Gulf/Arklatex region into
the eastern Great Lakes to Quebec this afternoon, while troughing
remained just to the east of the eastern seaboard. Further west,
an upper low and troughing were over sections of the western
Conus. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the
northeast to mid Atlantic states and extended into the OH Valley
and Southeast Conus. This is resulting in sunny skies across
eastern KY this afternoon, with temperatures averaging a few
degrees above normal for this point in October. Temperatures were
within a few degrees of yesterdays readings at this point, while
dewpoints in the southwest were a few degrees higher than 24 hours
ago.
The axis of the upper level ridge will remain west of eastern KY
through the rest of the weekend and become centered near the mouth
of the MS River by late Sunday night. This ridge will tend to
flatten as an upper low and shortwave trough move from near the
Saskatchewan/Manitoba to northern Plains area to Ontario and
Quebec crossing sections of the Great Lakes. Further west,
troughing will remain across much of the western Conus. Sfc high
pressure initially centered in the mid Atlantic States will
become centered in the Appalachian region. The pressure gradient
between the sfc high building south near and east of the Appalachians
and lower pressure in the central Conus/Plains will be a bit
stronger for locations near the VA border in the southeastern
portion of the area.
This scenario will result in a continuation of persistence or near
persistence with mild days and rather cool overnight lows
especially in the valleys. Ridge/valley temperature splits will be
favored as well, with ridgetop locations in the mid to upper 40s,
while valleys drop into the upper 30s to around 40 degree range.
A few outlying sheltered valley locations away from the larger
bodies of water may experience patchy frost tonight and/or Sunday
night. Otherwise, along rivers, lakes, and larger creeks, fog
formation is anticipated each night. The areal extent of the fog
in the Big Sandy region may be a bit more limited than typical for
that area tonight to early Sunday, with the slightly stronger
gradient.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
At the start of the long term period, a stubborn 500 mb ridge
will still be centered just west of the forecast area, with a well
defined negatively tilted shortwave trough over the Central
Plains, just west of this ridge. At the surface, this shortwave
will correspond to an area of low pressure near the KS/CO border,
with surface high pressure firmly in place over the Ohio Valley.
As this shortwave lifts northeast along the periphery of the
ridge, it will work to flatten the ridge somewhat, and a second
midlevel disturbance will also work to reinforce troughing over
the Northern Rockies and the Pacific Northwest. Eventually, these
impulses will finally break down the ridge over our area.
Meanwhile, at the surface, an area of low pressure associated with
the first shortwave will lift to the northeast from the Plains
into the Upper Midwest. A diffuse frontal boundary, previously
stalled over Ohio, will also lift back north of the area with this
system as a warm front, completely failing to affect our local
weather. Instead, high pressure will continue to dominate through
the end of the work week.
With high pressure in control, extremely pleasant weather is
expected to continue through Friday. Highs each day will be above
average, but still only rising into the low to mid 70s,
accompanied by ample sunshine. A possible exception could be
Wednesday, when a shift to southwesterly flow aloft will allow for
an embedded shortwave disturbance or two to pass over the area.
Even so, in the absence of better moisture, no rainfall is
expected. Instead, the main impact to the forecast would be
increased cloud cover on Wednesday, with marginally warmer lows
possible should cloud cover persist overnight. Otherwise, high
pressure and a weak pressure gradient will allow for ridge valley
temperature splits to develop, with lows in the valleys generally
ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s in the first portion of the
period, while ridges remain more in the low to mid 40s. Expect
typical fog formation to accompany these cool temperatures in
mainstem river valleys. Patchy frost cannot be ruled out for the
coolest and most sheltered valleys early Tuesday morning; however,
this will largely depend on dewpoints going into the night, which
will influence the magnitude of cooling in these locations. Raw
NBM dewpoints are almost certainly too moist, an observation
corroborated by ensemble guidance. LREF mean dewpoints look to be
in the low to mid 40s rather than the NBM's low 50s, and given the
depicted dry layer in deterministic model soundings, in addition
to a lack of truly appreciable moisture advection, these 40s
dewpoints seem reasonable. Even so, it is worth noting that should
dewpoints be drier than forecast, more significant cooling would
be possible, increasing the chance for patchy frost in hollows
without a body of water. Regardless, minimum temperatures do trend
warmer through the period, which should keep frost risk lower
later in the week, although valleys will still be cooler than
ridgetops.
By the end of the period, model spread increases significantly
with respect to whether a ridging or troughing pattern is favored
locally. However, it appears clear that rain is unlikely through
Saturday, with the majority of LREF members favoring no measurable
precipitation through the entire long term period. In short,
weather should remain pleasant.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VFR conditions with light winds and clear skies (outside of a few
passing high clouds tonight) can be expected through the TAF
period. The one possible exception is the development of valley
fog, which could possibly reach some of the valley terminals such
as SME, LOZ, or IOB. Even then, any fog that develops or reaches
these locations is likely to be brief and limited to an hour or so
either side of sunrise Sunday morning.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 7:14 PM EDT---------------
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