LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 3:07 PM EDT503
FXUS63 KLMK 251907
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
307 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry weather continues through next Friday. Expect cool nights and
warm afternoons. Patchy fog will be possible each morning, mainly
in river valleys.
* The next significant chance for widespread rainfall is not
expected until Halloween weekend, with medium-high confidence
(70- 80%) in dry weather on Halloween. More active weather
returns in early November.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Upper ridging and surface high pressure will remain in control of
the eastern CONUS for the upcoming work week, and likely into the
first part of the weekend. The upper ridge does briefly break down
later Wednesday into Thursday, with a weak and moisture starved cold
front stalling to our north across the southern Great Lakes before
it gets into the region. The upper ridge does briefly build back in
for Friday, however it will be more progressive in nature. This will
allow for some precipitation chances (20% Saturday) returning for
the second half of the weekend, more likely Sunday (70-80%) as
a shortwave ejects out of the central CONUS.
Under the persistently dry conditions, expect temperatures mostly in
the mid 70s early this week. Then by later this week, highs look to
climb more into the upper 70s with the aid of some southerly surface
flow. Increased sky cover and precipitation through the weekend
should knock highs back down into the low and mid 70s, however these
values are still above normal for this time of year. As has been the
consistent theme, look for some chilly morning with lows mostly in
the 40s through the work week. By the weekend, increase moisture
(dew points) and increasing sky cover will allow for more mild lows
in the 50s. We'll also likely continue to see some river valley fog
each morning.
Will continue to highlight the prolonged stretch of dry weather also
coming with a couple of concerns. 1.) Worsening drought conditions
over the entire area, and 2.) Perhaps a few fire weather concerns
later this week as small fuels continue to cure and we get some
slightly better boundary layer winds. At the very least, these
conditions may just provide good conditions for some prescribed
burns, but will have to make sure we don't run into a few more
wildfire issues by late week. For now, good overnight recovery of RH
values has been mitigating a faster small fuels drying out trend.
There remains a consistent signal for a more active stretch of
weather going into early November, however individual details remain
quite inconsistent with respect to the overall pattern. Timing,
strength, and placement of individual shortwaves passing through the
more progressive flow will remain in question for now.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
VFR will continue to prevail as high pressure remains in control.
Only issues are the erratic wind directions that come with stagnant
airmasses. Variable winds late this afternoon will likely go calm
overnight or very light out of the ESE to SE. Tomorrow brings a
light SW wind along with some patchy/brief fog chances at HNB/or
BWG. A few upper clouds will also be noted.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BJS
AVIATION...BJS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 3:07 PM EDT---------------
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