LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 1:37 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...419
FXUS63 KLMK 251737
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
137 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry weather continues through next Friday. Expect cool nights and
warm afternoons. Patchy fog will be possible each morning, mainly
in river valleys.
* The next significant chance for widespread rainfall is not
expected until Halloween weekend, with medium-high confidence (60-
80%) in dry weather on Halloween. More active weather returns in
early November.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
A persistent quiet weather pattern continues this morning across
central KY and southern IN, with few changes since the previous
forecast issuance. Through sunrise, temperatures should continue to
gradually fall across the area, with enhanced cooling in valleys and
rural areas. These cooler spots will likely drop into the upper 30s
and low 40s, while elevated locations and urban centers should only
fall into the mid-to-upper 40s. In these deeper valleys, and
especially near rivers/lakes, patchy fog is likely to develop for a
few hours before dissipating by mid-morning.
For the rest of the morning and into the afternoon, mostly sunny
skies should help temperatures warm into the low-to-mid 70s, as 1000-
850 mb thickness trends should support highs a few degrees above
persistence. Winds will be light and variable throughout the day as
the pressure gradient over the region will remain weak. This evening
into tonight, temperatures should again cool efficiently thanks to
light winds and low humidity near the ground. Temperatures should
again drop into the 40s in most locations by dawn Monday, with
patchy fog forming in rural areas and river valleys.
For the remainder of the upcoming week, a fairly steady pattern of
cool nights and warm days with dry weather should continue as no
significant weather systems are expected to approach the region. The
synoptic pattern should feature troughing and more unsettled weather
across the western half of North America, with ridging and mostly
dry weather extending from TX across the southeastern US. A few
shortwave disturbances will try to ride across the top of the
southeast US ridge during the middle of the week, bringing increased
mid- and high-level cloud cover as they pass to the north of the
area. Temperatures should gradually warm through the week, with
highs increasing from the low-to-mid 70s early in the week to the
mid-to-upper 70s by Thursday and Friday. For late October, these
values will be some 10-15 degrees above normal.
As previous discussions have noted, the main impact from this
extended dry weather will be worsening drought conditions, as
rainfall deficits will increase over the next 7 days. The increasing
prevalence of drought could leave the region susceptible to enhanced
fire weather conditions, particularly as falling leaves increases
the amount of 1- and 10-hr fuels present. Fortunately, we should
continue to see fairly good recovery of RH values at night, at least
through mid-week, and current 10-hr fuel moisture from local obs
sites are in the 11-13% range, above critical levels. The Hot-Dry-
Windy Index (HDWI) does approach the 75th percentile of
CFSR climatology by mid-week, though in general, relatively light
winds will limit the overall fire danger across the area.
By Halloween weekend, a pattern shift will begin to take place, as
successive shortwaves break down the ridging across the eastern US.
As one of these waves crosses east of the Mississippi over the
weekend, moisture return should lead to increasing rain chances
across the area. Between 60-80% of GEFS/ECMWF/CMC ensemble members
have measurable precipitation at some point over the weekend, with
the Euro featuring faster timing in general with better rain chances
on Halloween. This pattern shift should continue into the first week
of November, when ensemble guidance continues to favor a more active
and dynamic pattern across the eastern US.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
VFR will continue to prevail as high pressure remains in control.
Only issues are the erratic wind directions that come with stagnant
airmasses. Variable winds late this afternoon will likely go calm
overnight or very light out of the ESE to SE. Tomorrow brings a
light SW wind along with some patchy/brief fog chances at HNB/or
BWG. A few upper clouds will also be noted.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CSG
AVIATION...BJS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 1:37 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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