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755 FXUS64 KLIX 211841AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA141 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER....KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 141 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026- Elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible for the development of fires through the remainder of this week and into the weekend due to low humidity and drought/abnormally dry conditions across most of the area.&&.SHORT TERM...(Now through Saturday night)Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026Upper level ridging will continue over portions of eastern Texasthrough the short term period. Close enough to keep temperatureson the mild side during the afternoon. Being on the eastern periphery of this ridge, dry northerly flow will remain over the region limiting and potential for rain across the CWFA. With dry and mostly clear skies, the stronger surface heating will continueto mix dry conditions to the surface during the afternoon hours. The winds at least early on in the period appear to be lackluster,which should overall limit fire spread...but the dry conditions and fuels will lead to easy fire ignition (see Fire Weather Section). Overnight lows are rather comfortable...to somewhat cool, especially in the typical lower drainage areas. NBM guidancehas been as much as 10 degrees off on the morning low temperatures across the region, so decided to continue with lowering temperatures overnight. During the day, NBM was a bit overzealous early this week as we have been verifying below guidance here as well. Similarly kept MaxTs on the lower side while lowering afternoon dew points as well. (Frye) &&.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Tuesday night)Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026Early on in the long term see Fire Weather statement below. Thiswill do an effective way of characterizing what to anticipateSunday and possibly Monday, but the only difference is Mondaysurface winds look to decrease across the region, which will makecritical fire weather conditions a bit more limited. Aloft, therelooks to be a bit of a synoptic change as a modest H5 trough begins to dig across the Red River Valley going into Tuesday. At the surface high pressure over the southern Appalachians will again keep a light easterly flow over the region. A weak front tries to move east into the Ozarks, but globals actually have thisfeature stalling north and west of the region as the trough flattens. All that said, rain chances look to be limited (nearzero), at least over landbased zones. There could be a few showers offshore from time to time, but otherwise the continued dry trend is expected through the end of the cycle. (Frye) &&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026Light easterly winds along with VFR conditions are expected forthe local terminals through the cycle. (Frye) &&.MARINE...Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026Conditions are becoming more benign with time as winds continue to ease below headline criteria across all waters. With persistent easterly flow, seas will remain elevated as an easterly swell develops. Pressure gradient tightens back up this weekend with headlines likely over the portions of the open waters. (Frye) &&.FIRE WEATHER...Issued at 212 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026Fire weather continues to be a concern despite the lighter winds.With little to no rain expected through the remainder of the week, we will continue to dry things out. Afternoon RH values willfall into the mid 20s across much of the inland area today and Thursday. Luckily 20ft winds should generally remain below 10 mph,which will limit the potential for more significant wind-driven fire spread. That said, the lack of stronger winds does not mean we are without a fire concern.The fuels and drought indicators help highlight the concerns. Recent ERC-based Fire Danger Class are generally in the Moderate to pockets of High. These values alone do not suggest extreme conditions, but KBDI values are commonly in the 600-700 range with a few stations already approaching 750. This points to considerable drying beyond just the fine surface fuels. The latest Drought Monitor also depicts Abnormally Dry (DO) to Severe Drought (D2) conditions across portions of the area, with the more substantial drought generally across southwest MS and the northern Florida Parishes. Overnight RH recovery will help the fine fuels temporarily, but will do little to reverse the accumulated dryness without rainfall.Numerous local burn bans remain in place across LA and MS. Within our area this includes East Feliciana, St. Helena, Tangipahoa, and Washington Parishes along with Wilkinson, Amite, and Pike Counties. Outdoor burning should be avoided, and all local restrictions followed.The next thing to watch will be the winds heading into the weekend. An increasing easterly gradient could bring a greater spread concern if stronger winds overlap the low afternoon RH. Some moisture recovery may offset this, so the overlap will be more important than either parameter alone. Until then, expect the concern to return each afternoon as temperatures rise and RH falls. /CAB/&&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...RDFLONG TERM....RDFAVIATION...RDFMARINE...RDFFIRE WEATHER...CAB
