IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 1:33 AM EDT776
FXUS63 KIWX 230533
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
133 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of fog are possible north of US-30 this morning. Some
locally dense fog may be possible in far NW Ohio and southern
Michigan.
- Warm, dry and pleasant weather will continue well into next week
with highs around 70 and lows in the 40s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Fog is the main forecast concern again this morning. Light NNE flow
off Lake Huron supporting widespread dense fog over parts of SE MI
and continuing to expand SW with time. Models split on exactly how
far SW this fog gets but there is a decent chance our NE counties
could get clipped. A few HRRR and RAP runs have also indicated
additional fog development possible around KFWA and points SE. Low
forecast confidence precludes any proactive headline decisions for
now but will continue to monitor satellite/surface obs closely
through the early morning and issue advisories or SPS's as
necessary. Otherwise, incredibly high amplitude/short wavelength
ridge continues to build over the Great Lakes through the weekend
with strong AVA/subsidence maintaining high pressure across the
Lower Great Lakes/northeast CONUS. Surface winds slowly veer to a
more SE and eventually S/SW direction tonight through the weekend.
That coupled with some increasing high clouds from upstream
trough/front should limit the fog threat for Sat AM though some
patchy fog can't be ruled out for our eastern zones. High temps
likely reach the low 70s again today given sunny skies (outside of
morning fog/stratus) and deep mixing. Leaned on the warmer and drier
side of guidance for today which gives afternoon RH values around 35
percent. This is not low enough for a substantive fire wx concern
(especially given very light wind) but imagine finer fuels are
starting to get pretty dry. Similar story over the weekend. Sunday's
highs will be a little warmer given increasing SW flow/light WAA but
dewpoints also creep up a bit as well. Strong ridge holds firm over
the Ohio Valley this weekend as upstream surface front stalls and
washes out well to our NW. Our next chance of rain doesn't arrive
until next Thu and even that is highly questionable as numerous
solutions show this front stalling to our NW as well. Real rainfall
chances don't arrive until around Halloween but that is far enough
out that many things could still change. Main story is that warm,
dry and pleasant fall weather will continue well into next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Amplification of flow has led to maintenance of expansive low
level ridge axis from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley.
Surface anticyclone will maintain its dominance across the
region as a result with a continued weak easterly low level flow
profiles. This easterly flow has been conducive for fog
development particularly downwind of the eastern Great Lakes.
Higher res guidance continues to suggest far NW Ohio and SE
Lower Michigan at greatest risk of dense fog overnight, but will
need to watch for possibility of some patchy fog developing in
KFWA vicinity in the 09Z to 14Z timeframe. Confidence remains
somewhat low for KFWA and will limit mention to TEMPO MVFR vsbys
with the 06Z TAFs. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds
will continue through this period.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 1:33 AM EDT---------------
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