MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 11:09 AM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...153
FXUS64 KMOB 201609
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1109 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1108 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
- Moderate to strong northeast winds may create hazardous
conditions for small craft over most of the marine area Friday
night into this weekend.
- A High Risk of rip currents is expected for beach areas from
Friday night through Saturday night.
- Dry conditions continue through the forecast period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1108 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
A system off the Mid Atlantic Coast is absorbed into a massive
upper trof which evolves through Thursday from eastern Canada all
the way down into the eastern Gulf. A large upper ridge meanwhile
amplifies over the central states then gradually builds into much
of the eastern states through Sunday. The upper trof meanwhile
mostly moves off into the western Atlantic, although leaves a
weaker version from near or just off the East Coast down into the
Bahamas. A surface ridge remains over much of the eastern states
through the period, though will strengthen over the southeastern
states Friday into Saturday. A low pressure system is anticipated
to develop near the eastern Bahamas on Saturday and probably lift
slowly northward. The strengthening surface ridge and this low
pressure system look to result in a tightening pressure gradient
that will lead to northeasterly winds increasing mainly over the
marine area Friday night and persisting through the weekend before
gradually diminishing early next week. This flow will usher drier
air into the forecast area and moderate temperatures somewhat as
well. Deep layer moisture continues to remain limited through the
period and have continued with a dry forecast through early next
week.
Lows tonight through Monday night range from the mid or upper 40s
well inland to the lower or mid 50s near the coast. Highs on
Wednesday will be in the mid/upper 70s to lower 80s, then upper
70s to lower 80s follow for Thursday and Friday. Highs will be in
the 70s on Saturday and Sunday, then trend to the upper 70s to
lower 80s by Tuesday of next week. A moderate risk of rip currents
continues through Wednesday for the Alabama beaches, while for the
western Florida panhandle beaches a moderate risk is in effect
through tonight, then a low risk is expected for Wednesday. A low
risk of rip currents follows for Thursday, then the rip current
risk increases to a High Risk for Friday night through Saturday
night. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1108 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
VFR conditions continue through Wednesday morning. Northeasterly
winds 5-10 knots become calm or light and variable this evening,
then increase to around 5 knots Wednesday morning. /29
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Moderate northeasterly winds will continue through Wednesday, with
winds briefly becoming more light to moderate by Thursday and
Friday. Small craft should exercise caution over our local Gulf
waters this morning. Strong northeasterly to easterly winds
develop by Friday night and linger into the weekend. Wind gusts
may approach gale force and seas may increase to 6-10 feet this
weekend. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 50 77 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 55 78 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 56 78 57 78 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 46 78 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 46 79 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 47 76 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 46 78 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 11:09 AM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...---------------
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