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312 FXUS64 KLIX 170502AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1202 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1109 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026- A strong cold frontal passage has brought elevated fire weather concerns. A Red Flag Warning remains for all of southern MS and portions of southeast LA today.- Windy conditions will also remain a while longer behind the front but should ease enough to allow wind advisories to drop by early afternoon today with Gale Warnings to follow by late this evening. Winds will remain breezy, especially over water areas keeping Small Craft Advisories valid into the new work week.&&.SHORT TERM...(Now through Tuesday night)Issued at 1109 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026Winds will be slow to ease over the coming days and may take untilmid week for all headlines to drop, which includes the coastalwaters. The dry conditions on top of drought and moderate windspeeds has prompted a red flag warning for today. Even though thisheadline will be dropped this evening as wind speeds ease, the dryconditions will remain with breezy conditions promoting conditionssupportive of fire spread, just not as rapid. Wind advisories willremain through early afternoon today as well due to the slow easein wind speeds. The very comfortable dry conditions will stay with us for at least the short term. These conditions are very normal for October and is our transition from a more tropical environment to a continental air mass environment, basically summer to winter transition.&&.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Friday night) Issued at 1109 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026The long term from midweek through the end of the workweek appears to be a dry one across the region. The northern flow around the eastern periphery of the H5 ridge centered over the Rio Grande Valley will keep the upper levels extremely dry. With the higher heights still in close proximity, above average daytime high temperatures can be expected with plenty of surface heating. In addition, think RH values will be held down too with strong mixing, especially over the northern tier. Closer to the coast the pressure gradient at least Wednesday and Thursday will be rather tight allowing for continued moderate easterly winds. However, the surface easterly flow will allow for somewhat higher relative humidity values where the stronger winds do occur, which will limit the spread of any fires that may get going. That said, although the spread will be limited across the interior due to more lackluster winds, a few fires will likely be in the cards, especially as the drought across southwestern MS and north of I10/12 in Louisiana continues to worsen. Overnight lows will remain comfortable with most locations along and north of I10/12 dropping into the 50s and 60s elsewhere. (Frye)&&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 1109 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026VFR through this cycle. Winds will be the only issue with this package which will be timed for shifts and shear values.&&.MARINE...Issued at 1109 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026Gale warnings remain through this evening. As winds begin to slowly ease a bit over some of the protected waters this evening, gale headlines may be replaced with advisories into Sunday. Winds will gradually turn easterly Sunday and continue to slowly ease to around 20kt late Sunday. These conditions are expected to last into the start of the new work week. A very slow lowering of easterly wind speed will occur into mid week where all headlines may finally be dropped.&&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048- 056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ034>037- 039-046>048-056-057-071-076-079>086.GM...Gale Warning until midnight CDT Saturday night for GMZ529- 531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577. Small Craft Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ529-531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572- 575-577.MS...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ068>071- 077-080>082.GM...Gale Warning until midnight CDT Saturday night for GMZ531>536- 541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577. Small Craft Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575- 577.&&$$SHORT TERM...TELONG TERM....RDFAVIATION...TEMARINE...TE
