CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 7:16 AM EDT503
FXUS61 KCLE 201116
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
716 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the previous forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and seasonable weather is expected through at least the
beginning of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Quite a quiescent weather pattern remains in place for the
foreseeable future. Through the work week the local
area will be sandwiched between ridging aloft over the central
U.S. and troughing over the Northeast. This will support general
surface high pressure, dry weather and seasonable temperatures.
Ridging aloft is expected to shift east this weekend, keeping
us dry but likely allowing temperatures to trend a bit warmer.
Splendid weather for outdoor fall activities is expected this
weekend. Highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 30s/40s will
be the general theme, though we may see some lower 70s by Sunday.
Inland locales will see additional opportunities for frost over
the coming nights, especially farther east. For Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning the greatest potential for frost looks to
be across far Northeast OH and Northwest PA where the growing
season has ended away from the lakeshore...though there will
likely be some frost farther west towards interior North
Central OH, and we may need an advisory for at least a handful
of counties where the growing season has not been deemed "over".
Will let the day shift take a better look at that potential.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this morning with mainly VFR to
persist through the TAF period. Patchy fog is possible tonight
into Wednesday morning and could impact TOL/FDY with non-VFR
vsbys. Have introduced MVFR conditions in this update,
thoughcan't rule out IFR conditions in future packages.
Winds are generally light and variable this morning, less than
5 knots. Winds will favor a northeast direction this afternoon,
5 to 8 knots before becoming light and variable again tonight.
Outlook...Outside of overnight patchy fog, mainly VFR is expected
through Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will shift northeast over the lake today and increase to
10-15kt, with a brief period of 15-20kt winds east of the
Islands this evening. Waves will increase to 1 to 3 feet this
afternoon through tonight, with a brief period of 2 to 4 footers
this evening east of the islands. Conditions will be near Small
Craft Advisory criteria for a few hours - holding off on the
headline early this morning, but will continue evaluating in
case winds/waves trend slightly higher. Lighter and more
variable winds with little wave activity for Wednesday and
Wednesday night. North-northeast winds to around 10kt develop on
Thursday and will build some chop, with winds expected to shift
more northeast and increase to 15-20kt for a time Thursday night
into Friday. 2-4 or 3-5 footers will likely build and a Small
Craft Advisory may be needed, especially in the central basin.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Sullivan
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Sullivan
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 7:16 AM EDT---------------
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