JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 4:40 AM EDT043
FXUS63 KJKL 190840
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
440 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Frost/freeze conditions are anticipated early this morning,
especially in the valleys of eastern and southeastern Kentucky.
- Frost is possible again tonight and Tuesday night, primarily in
the valley locations.
- Expect near-normal temperatures throughout the work week, with
mostly clear skies and overnight ridge-valley temperature splits
likely to continue for at least next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 440 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
08Z sfc analysis shows a strong area of high pressure still
centered northeast of the state and in firm control of our
weather. This has meant another night of cloud free skies, light
winds, and low dewpoints - near ideal conditions for radiational
cooling. As a result, a moderate to large ridge and valley
temperature split has developed along with thin trails of fog
tracing the rivers but likely locally dense. This limited fog has
set up amid another night likely featuring widespread frost and
some pockets of sub freezing conditions on the way by dawn.
Currently, temperatures are down in the mid 30s in many of the
valleys while ridges have only slowly sunk into the mid 40s.
Meanwhile, dewpoints are again found in the mid 30s most places.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in near
perfect symmetry aloft over the state through the short term
portion of the forecast. They all depict the northeast portion of
a fairly large southern 5h ridge poking into eastern Kentucky
this morning. This portion of the ridge will hold into the
afternoon before weakening slightly as some harmless mid-level
energy oozes into the area. This will help to lower 5h heights
for eastern Kentucky on Tuesday but with little sensible
indicators of it expected in our weather. Given the tiny model
spread, most of the forecast grids came from unadjusted NBM data
this morning. However, did enhance the terrain distinctions again
tonight on account of the sfc high position and incorporating the
current COOP MOS guidance. Did also drop afternoon dewpoints and
RH from the NBM numbers considering deeper mixing into the drier
air aloft. As for the PoPs - they are zero through the period from
the NBM and were kept that way as ridging at the sfc dominates.
Sensible weather will feature seasonally appropriate autumn
weather underway with a Freeze Warning in effect for most of our
southeast counties and a Frost Advisory for the rest of the area
through 9 AM EDT. The narrow areas of dense river valley fog will
probably again protect river adjacent spots from frosting or
freezing this morning. Look for plenty of sunshine to help
temperatures to rebound into the mid and upper 60s for most places
by late afternoon. However, clear skies, dry air, and high
pressure will once again set up ridge to valley temperatures
difference tonight - likely of a similar magnitude to what we are
seeing early this morning. For that reason, another frost advisory
could be needed for at least parts of the JKL CWA into Tuesday
morning. We will again wait and see how this morning's lows and
frost reports pan out before outlining any new headlines. Then
Tuesday will be similar to today - perhaps with some more in the
way of high clouds around, though, on account of the mid level
energy passing through and high temperatures nearly the same - in
the mid to upper 60s.
The main changes to the NBM starting point were to adjust hourly
temperatures tonight for enhanced terrain effects given the high
off to the northeast. Did also tweak dewpoints and RH lower for
This afternoon and Tuesday afternoon on account of the expectation
for deeper mixing into the drier air still found just off the sfc.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
The forecast remains on track, with models and ensembles in good
agreement through the work week. Broad upper-level ridging over the
central CONUS and robust surface high pressure south of James Bay
will maintain tranquil weather across eastern Kentucky. Expect
rain-free days, mostly clear skies, and a gradual day-to-day
moderating trend in temperatures. Toward next weekend, an
upper-level trough progressing east across Canada may begin to
suppress the ridge and displace the surface high eastward.
Previous Discussion...
The long-term 18/12Z model suite beginning Tuesday morning is in
good agreement, showing broad upper-level ridging (the dominant
controlling weather feature for the long term) over the heart of
the CONUS with its ridge axis roughly aligned with the
Mississippi River. This continues to support robust surface
high pressure sprawling across much of eastern North America,
centered on a roughly 1035 mb high situated south of James Bay.
North to northeasterly low-level flow will continue to filter
down the Appalachians along the eastern side of the high
through the new work week. Uncertainty increases next weekend
regarding the ridges continued maintenance as an upper-level
trough may eject eastward from the Pacific and break it down,
though a slim majority of the 00Z LREF members still favor the
ridge holding firm into the last week of October.
In sensible terms, this persistent surface ridging and
northerly to easterly flow will keep fair and seasonably cool
weather across all of eastern Kentucky with only a slow
moderating trend. Highs on Tuesday are forecast to range from
the mid 60s to lower 70s, moderating into the upper 60s to mid
70s by Sunday. Meanwhile, nighttime lows start off in the mid
30s to lower 40s on Tuesday night and only moderate slightly to
the upper 30s to mid 40s by the weekend. Lingering patchy
frost is probable Tuesday night into early Wednesday for the
sheltered valleys, and additional isolated patchy frost cannot
be entirely ruled out later in the week in the coldest
sheltered hollows. Otherwise, at least patchy fog is likely
along the mainstem rivers and larger tributaries on most
nights.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
Surface and upper level riding will remain in place across the
region through the period. This will lead to light winds and very
few if any clouds. River valley fog, dense in some areas, is
likely to linger as late as 14Z. This will not affect the TAF
sites with any visibility reductions.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ044-050-051-
058-059-068-079-083-084.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ052-060-069-
080-085>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEERTSON/GINNICK
AVIATION...JP/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 4:40 AM EDT---------------
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