PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 16, 12:26 PM CDT991
FXUS63 KPAH 161726
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1226 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dramatically cooler today as a strong cold front sweeps
through. Highs are forecast 27 to 32 degrees colder than
yesterday.
- Saturday night still looks to have a high potential for a
first frost across most of the CWA with overnight lows in the
30s.
- Sunday kicks off a warming trend with highs returning back to
around or slightly above normal by mid week amid dry and
settled weather with warm days and cool nights.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
A very strong cold front is moving int the northwestern part of
the CWA this morning. Along the front a few showers will remain
possible through early morning but the main impact will be
starkly lower temperatures and gusty winds. Wind gusts 30-35
mph are occurring immediately behind the front before tapering
back to 20 to 25 mph. Today will feel much different from
yesterday with highs likely struggling to break 60 during the
day underneath fairly persistent low clouds.
Behind the large shortwave trough pushing this front strong
upper ridging builds in. Fairly breezy northwest winds are
expected to persist through much of the day Saturday before the
surface reflection of the upper ridge axis passes overhead
Saturday night. At that point strong radiational cooling
conditions set up with dewpoints in the low to mid 30s. Frost
looks likely for a sizable chunk of the CWA, with a freeze very
much possible in southern Illinois and southwest Indiana. For
messaging clarity will not issue a Frost Advisory with this
shift but one will likely be required for at least part, if not
all, of the CWA by Saturday night.
Deep layer ridging looks to control the pattern for the
remainder of the forecast period. With dry, and settled
conditions with low humidity and large diurnal temperature
swings, highs in the mid 70s lows in the mid 40s which is close
to seasonal norms.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
There is a brief period of VFR cigs (though still only around
3500 ft) this afternoon, then cigs come back down to MVFR around
or just after sunset. Drier air begins to move in overnight and
will lift cigs back to VFR and will slowly start to scatter out
the cloud deck. Clear skies are expected by mid morning
tomorrow.
Breezy northwest winds continue this afternoon and into the
overnight with gusts up to around 25 kts at times. Winds turn
more northerly overnight, then northeasterly tomorrow morning.
Slightly less breezy conditions are expected tomorrow.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...HICKFORD
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 16, 12:26 PM CDT---------------
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