MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 6:25 AM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...375
FXUS64 KMOB 151125
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
625 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
- Record or near record highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are
expected Thursday with mid to upper 80s for Friday. With many
areas still without power and recovery efforts from Hurricane
Isaias ongoing, these temperatures could lead to an increased
risk for heat related illnesses.
- Strong northerly winds develop over the marine area Friday
night, becoming easterly and lasting into the weekend. Gale
force wind gusts are possible, with conditions posing a hazard
to small craft.
- A High Risk of dangerous rip currents return to area beaches
from Saturday night into early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows a few isolated areas of
patchy fog along the coast. Surface observations in these areas
have been reporting fluctuations in visibilities that suggest fog
is rather shallow. Given the sporadic nature, have held off on a
Dense Fog Advisory, and any lingering fog will dissipate shortly
after sunrise. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track
and no changes were necessary. /73
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
There is the potential for patchy fog development across much of
the area overnight, and it's possible that dense fog will develop
across portions of southeast Mississippi and extreme southwest
Alabama. Will continue to monitor at this point. A large upper
trof progresses across the eastern states late in the week, with
an associated surface low bringing a cold front through the
forecast area Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Some
isolated showers will be possible near the coast of the western
Florida panhandle on Friday, but otherwise dry conditions are
expected through Tuesday. Record or near record temperatures
continue for Thursday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s,
then highs on Friday will be moderated slightly with highs mostly
in the mid to upper 80s. Lows Thursday night range from the lower
60s inland to the mid/upper 60s closer to the coast. Here's the
current forecast for highs on Thursday along with the record
values:
Mobile 89, Record 89
Pensacola 88, Record 89
Much cooler air flows into the area in the wake of the cold front.
Highs on Saturday range from the upper 60s well inland to the
lower 70s elsewhere, and highs on Sunday will be similar. Lows
Saturday night and Sunday night range from the upper 40s well
inland to the mid 50s at the coast. A gradual warming trend
follows for early next week, with highs on Tuesday reaching the
upper 70s to lower 80s, and lows Tuesday night will range from
the lower 50s well inland to near 60 at the coast. A low risk of
rip currents is expected through Friday then trends to a high risk
for Saturday night through Monday. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Patchy, and at times dense, fog has been observed along the coast
and will impact the terminals through 14Z. LIFR to IFR
visibilites will likely persist at KJKA, while MVFR
visibilities are expected elsewhere. Fog should dissipate shortly
after sunrise with VFR conditions returning through the reminder
of the forecast period. /73
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2026
A light, diurnally variable, the rest of the week becomes
a strong to very strong easterly Friday night behind a cold front
moving across the forecast area Friday. A surface ridge building
south along the Appalachians later in the weekend into the coming
week will shift winds to easterly, whilst remaining strong,
especially over open Gulf waters.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 89 65 86 55 / 0 0 10 0
Pensacola 88 68 84 58 / 0 0 10 0
Destin 85 69 82 59 / 0 0 20 10
Evergreen 90 61 87 52 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 90 62 88 50 / 0 0 0 10
Camden 89 62 86 50 / 0 0 0 10
Crestview 89 63 86 56 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 6:25 AM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...---------------
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