PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 16, 2:07 AM EDT843
FXUS61 KPBZ 160607
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
207 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Marginal Risk for severe storms today includes most of western
PA and northern WV. Probabilities for advisory level wind gusts
(outside of convection) have also decreased. No other
significant changes at this time.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers, thunderstorms, and gusty wind today
2) Colder with frost and freeze conditions Saturday night, with
frost possible again Sunday night
3) Dry and warmer next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms in warm advection will
continue to cross the area this morning. Elevated instability
and a low level jet should also enhance some of this activity
until just before sunrise.
A digging upper trough is expected to advance out of the Midwest
today, as a deepening surface low tracks across Southern Ontario
to New England. The low will pull a strong cold front across the
area from mid morning into the afternoon. Increasing flow with a
jet aloft will result in increasing shear, with building
instability east of the front. Enough heating/instability for
strong storms appear unlikely for much of Ohio, with an earlier
FROPA. Further to the east, building instability and the shear
should result in a potential for storms to produce damaging wind
gusts as the front crosses. Winds at 10kft are progged to be
around 60kt at the time of FROPA across wrn PA, with around 50
kt further to the south.
There is a potential for damaging winds as a line of showers and
embedded thunderstorms develops along the front later this
morning into the afternoon. There is some veering in the lower
levels, with some limited potential for brief rotation should
parameters briefly align, though the main threat should be from
damaging wind gusts. Gusty winds are also expected outside of
any convection, with a tight pressure gradient and mixing.
Probabilities of advisory level gusts have decreases according
to the latest model data and BUFKIT momentum transfer
procedures. Still, gusts from 30 to 35 mph will be likely
thorough tonight, with gusts around 40 mph across the higher
terrain. The highest elevations of eastern Tucker county could
see gusts around 45 mph, but held off on a wind advisory at this
time with the recent downward trend in expected wind gusts.
The front should exit to the east by 4-5 PM, ending the severe
storm potential. The deepening upper trough is then progged to
track across the Upper Ohio Valley region later today into
tonight, with some lake enhancement also possible as cold
advection occurs. The precipitation should be tapering off by
the time the coldest air arrives Saturday morning, so other than
a potential for a few snowflakes mixing in north of I-80 and in
the ridges, no snow is expected.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
The upper trough should exit the East Coast by late
Saturday/Saturday night, as a low deepens/closes off the
Carolina coast. Surface high pressure is expected to build
across the Upper Ohio Valley region, with light wind and mainly
clear skies. This should result in efficient radiational
cooling, with a frost/freeze potential across the area. Frost
advisories/freeze warnings may be needed. Some frost will be
possible again Sunday night with surface high pressure overhead.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
Model ensembles indicate the closed low/trough should persist
off of the SE Coast, with another trough over the Western CONUS.
Areas from the Midwest to the Upper Ohio Valley region should be
under a ridge, with dry weather expected from Sunday into late
next week. Temperatures are also expected to moderate back to
near or just above seasonable levels by mid week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered showers continue to develop in warm advection, and
under a low level jet. A thunderstorm is also possible with
elevated instability in place, though the probability was too
low to include in any TAF sites.
Improvement to VFR is expected as the warm front moves north,
and the wind veers from SE to SW. Strong surface low pressure is
expected to track across southern Ontario to New England today,
pulling a strong cold front across the region. A line of showers
is expected to develop this morning as the front moves across
Ohio. Building shear and instability should result in the line
intensifying as it moves east later this morning into the
afternoon. Damaging wind gusts are possible in some of the
stronger showers/storms that are able to mix down some of the
strong wind aloft (10kft wind from 50-60kt.) Included a TEMPO
mention for thunder east of a ZZV-PHD line as FROPA occurs. Cold
advection and a crossing upper trough should maintain showers
across the area into tonight, with MVFR cigs expected. Gusty SW
wind this morning should shift to the WNW after FROPA, with
gusts from 20-30kt.
Outlook...
Rain showers and MVFR cigs should continue into Friday night as
the upper trough crosses, and some lake enhancement occurs. VFR
and diminishing wind is expected Saturday under building high
pressure. VFR should then continue under the high through at
least the middle of next week.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...WM
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 16, 2:07 AM EDT---------------
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