JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 5:01 PM EDT505
FXUS63 KJKL 142101
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
501 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures remain mild through Thursday, while showers are
possible at times into Friday.
- A few thunderstorms capable of locally heavy rain and strong
wind gusts are possible this evening.
- Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - likely the coldest
we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a risk for
frost on Saturday night into Sunday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 445 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge extended across portions
of the Southeastern Conus and into sections of the Gulf. Further
west an upper level low was over the Four Corners vicinity.
Meanwhile, a shortwave trough/MCV was moving through the OH Valley
and interacting with a boundary sagging toward the Commonwealth.
With the ridge in place to the south, it was another day of record
or near record warmth in eastern KY with highs having reached
into the 80s in most locations. At JKL, the high so far has been
86, breaking the previous record of 82 from 2017/2021. Showers and
a few storms associated with the sagging cold front and the
shortwave trough/MCV passing by to the north have moved into
northern sections of the region over the past couple of hours. Low
level lapse rates are analyzed around 6.5 to 7C/km in the north
with mid level lapse rates a bit on the meager side in the 5.5 to
6C/km range. MLCAPE across the region is analyzed on the modest
side in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range while effective shear per SPC
mesoanalysis page is on the order of 25 to 30KT in the north. PW
meanwhile was recently analyzed near 1.3 inches along the VA
border and around 1.9 inches in the far northwest. Upstream of the
area, a wind gust to 39 mph was observed at the KY Mesonet site
in northern Fayette County.
This evening and tonight, the shortwave trough/MCV working through
the OH Valley will move east of the area during the evening while
the upper low initially over the Four Corners region should move
into northeastern CO. Meanwhile further north, a shortwave will
move southeast from Alberta across sections of Saskatchewan and
into Manitoba and the Northern Plains. At the same time, the
frontal zone will sag into eastern KY and stall out over the
middle of the region. With PW expected to remain elevated and
increase to the 1.9 to 2.1 inch range or in the 97th to 99th
percentile range, if any training of thunderstorms were to occur
it could result in locally heavier rain. With some modest instability
in place as well, a storm or two this evening could result in a
strong wind gust. In general, this potential is greatest near and
north of the Mtn Parkway. WPC has a slight ERO in the northern
sections of the area while northern areas are also in a marginal
SWODY1. Otherwise, near and behind the sagging front, lowering
clouds and patchy fog or stratus build down should occur as the
night progresses and this will linger into Thursday morning with
the boundary in the vicinity. Showers remain possible tonight near
the boundary as well.
For Thursday and Thursday night, the upper low that will have
reached CO late tonight should weaken to an open wave and
eventually merge with the trough to its north during this
timeframe. This resulting 500 mb trough axis should reach Ontario
to the western Great Lakes to Central Plains through late Thursday
night. As this occurs, a sfc low should track from sections of the
Plains to the Central to eastern Great Lakes through Thursday
night. The boundary that will have stalled over eastern KY will
lift back north as a warm front, while a cold front enters the
Commonwealth on Thursday night. Shower chances linger into
Thursday near the boundary before it moves north Thursday evening.
A thunderstorm cannot be ruled out as well. South of the
boundary, temperatures will remain mild, with highs likely to
climb back well into the 80s for Thursday highs. With the front
approaching, winds and gusts should increase late particularly in
the west.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 541 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
The long term forecast period is defined by a significant change in
sensible weather conditions across eastern Kentucky. While the
period begins Thursday night with unusually mild conditions
overnight, a potent cold front should sweep through the area early
Friday and usher in a noticeably cooler and drier airmass for the
weekend. In fact, Saturday's forecast features the coldest
temperatures of the season thus far. A widespread frost is looking
increasingly likely on Saturday night, but temperatures are forecast
to moderate back towards climatological norms under fair skies early
next week.
The period begins with a sharp trough ejecting southeast out of
Canada, phasing with a leeward Rocky Mountain trough to yield a
deeper, positively-tilted feature over the Upper Midwest on Thursday
evening. Vertically-stacked southwesterly flow around the base of
that trough will advect warm air into the atmospheric column over
the Ohio River Valley. The aforementioned boundary is accordingly
forecast to lift back north as a warm front on Thursday night, and a
deepening surface low should emerge over the Great Lakes by Friday
morning. In response to the tightening pressure gradient, winds will
become breezy overnight. This will prevent the area's conventional
ridge-valley splits from materializing in this time frame, as the
boundary layer should remain well mixed. Given the lack of
decoupling and the warm air advection regime in place, Thursday
night's temperature forecast looks unseasonably mild. Expect a muted
diurnal heating curve, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.
Friday's high temperatures will be pretty similar to Thursday
night's lows, as the cold front associated with this system will be
on the doorstep of the JKL CWA on Friday morning. (In fact, latest
modeling suggests that in some locations Friday's high temperatures
will occur at or shortly after midnight.) There should be enough
forced lift for some generic rain showers over the CWA during and
after Friday's frontal passage, but the greatest impacts from this
boundary will stem from its cold air advection. The sharp nature of
the parent troughing aloft and the fairly tight surface pressure
gradient in this set up collectively suggest that there will be a
pronounced shift from breezy southwesterly winds to gustier
northwesterly winds as frontal passage occurs on Friday.
Northwesterly wind gusts in the 20-30 mph range are likely on Friday
afternoon/evening before the pressure gradient weakens overnight.
The winds will retain their northwesterly orientation through
Saturday morning, which will help them usher a noticeably cooler and
drier airmass into the region for the weekend. That efficient cold
air advection may actually cause temperatures to decrease during the
afternoon hours on Friday, with widespread temps in the 50s by
Friday evening and the upper 30s to 40s on Saturday morning.
Northerly winds associated with a post-frontal surface high will
keep the cold air advection going on Saturday. High temps will
struggle to make it out of the 50s, and afternoon dewpoints should
plummet towards the low/mid 30s area-wide. Under mostly clear skies
and slackening winds, Saturday night looks to be the coldest night
of the season thus far. Efficient radiational cooling and those dry
dewpoint values favor widespread low temperatures in the 30s and
frost potential in more than just the typical cold spots. Near-
freezing temperatures cannot be ruled out in the most sheltered and
shadiest valley locales, but a widespread freeze appears unlikely.
Nevertheless, frost/freeze headline products will need to be
considered as this time frame approaches and forecast confidence
continues to improve. Agricultural interests and recreational
gardeners are accordingly encouraged to review any relevant frost
preparedness plans and stay tuned for potential product issuance.
The progressive nature of the overarching synoptic weather pattern
prevents this chillier air from becoming permanent. It is not winter
yet, and winter precipitation is not expected. The postfrontal high
should shift east on Sunday as the previous trough axis aloft swings
through New England. Modeled height rises amidst a building ridge
suggest that temperatures will moderate under fair skies in the
latter stages of the forecast period. Expect highs to rebound into
the 60s on Sunday and then towards the 70 degree mark early next
week. Dewpoints will be slow to recover to the pre-frontal values
forecast at the beginning of the period, but the approach of a
southern-stream shortwave trough on Monday should return some
moisture to the column by Monday night into Tuesday. So, while an
additional round of patchy frost is possible in the coldest valleys
on Sunday night, Eastern Kentucky's typical autumnal river valley
fog should return to the forecast on Monday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
Prevailing VFR was occurring at issuance time and is expected to
continue to begin the period. Some low clouds and cumulus had
developed in advance of a cold front, with additional cloud cover
upstream in association with convection with an approaching
shortwave trough and cold front. Showers and scattered
thunderstorms with some brief reductions to MVFR or perhaps
briefly lower are anticipated to develop during the first 6 hours
of the period and affect locations mainly north of a KSJS to KJKL
to KLOZ to KSME line. As the boundary gradually sags into eastern
KY tonight, widespread MVFR or lower should develop by the 06Z to
12Z timeframe generally for areas near and north of a KSME to
KLOZ to KJKL to KSJS. Showers will remain possible with the
boundary stalled over the area during the last 6 hours of the
period and reductions to MVFR and IFR are anticipated for KSJS to
KJKL and north and mainly VFR to the south.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MARCUS/CMC
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 5:01 PM EDT---------------
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