MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 1:24 AM CDT ...New UPDATE...012
FXUS64 KMOB 140624 AAA
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
124 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 118 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
- Dense fog will spread across southeast Mississippi overnight. A
Dense Fog Advisory is now in effect through 9 AM Wednesday.
- Near record highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected
through late week. With many areas still without power and
recovery efforts from Hurricane Isaias ongoing, these
temperatures could lead to an increased risk for heat-related
illnesses.
- Strong northerly winds develop over the marine area Friday
night, becoming easterly and lasting into the weekend. Gale
force wind gusts are possible, with conditions posing a hazard
to small craft.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 118 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
The latest night fog satellite product is showing areas of fog
expanding northeastward across southeast Mississippi, and
Mississippi Department of Transportation webcams are confirming
dense fog across Stone county. In addition, the latest RAP model
is showing this fog spreading across the remainder into SE MS,
and continuing through 14z. Therefore, a Dense Fog Advisory has
been issued to include all of southeast Mississippi. The NPW has
been sent with an expiration time of 9 AM. /22
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Dry conditions continue through Monday. Record or near record
warm temperatures are expected through at least Thursday, with a
cold front sweeping through Friday afternoon into Friday night and
ushering in cooler air. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower
90s Wednesday and Thursday. Highs on Friday are less certain and
depend on how quickly the front moves through, and for now am
anticipating highs in the mid to upper 80s. Lows tonight,
Wednesday night and Thursday night typically range from around 60
well inland to the mid 60s at the coast. Here's a look at the
current forecast for highs on Wednesday and Thursday along with
the record values:
Wednesday (10/14):
Mobile 90, Record 90
Pensacola 89, Record 89
Thursday (10/15):
Mobile 88, Record 89
Pensacola 87, Record 89
There is the potential for fog development overnight and possibly
Wednesday night. For the rest of tonight, the best potential for
fog development looks to be over much of southeast Mississippi and
extreme southwest Alabama, though patchy fog will also be
possible across the remainder of the area north of the coast. It's
possible that a Dense Fog Advisory could become necessary, but
will need to monitor at this point. For the upcoming frontal
passage late Friday afternoon into Friday night, deep layer
moisture continues to look too limited to support precipitation.
Lows Friday night range from around 50 well inland to the mid 50s
at the coast, then lows Saturday night will be similar except for
a bit cooler well inland. Overnight lows then moderate going into
Monday night when lows range from the mid/upper 50s inland to the
lower 60s closer to the coast. Highs on Saturday range from the
upper 60s to lower 70s then trend to the mid 70s to around 80 by
Monday. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Saturday.
/29
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Patchy to areas of fog are possible overnight, particularly across
much of southeast Mississippi and extreme southwest Alabama,
though will also be possible across the remainder of the area
north of the coast. Dense fog development is possible mainly
across extreme southeast Mississippi and extreme southwest
Alabama. The fog dissipates Tuesday morning leaving VFR conditions
which continue through Tuesday evening. Calm or light and
variable winds overnight become an easterly to southeasterly flow
around 5 knots on Tuesday. /29
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1107 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
A diurnal flow cycle continues through Friday with an offshore
flow developing late each night into the morning hours then
becoming onshore near the coast during the afternoon. Strong
northerly winds are forecast for Friday night as a powerful cold
front passes through the region, with gusts to gale force
possible. Small craft advisories and gale watches/warnings may be
needed in future forecast package updates. Strong easterly winds
will become established over the weekend into early next week.
MM/25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 90 64 88 65 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 89 67 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 87 69 85 67 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 92 61 90 60 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 91 60 89 61 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 91 60 90 60 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 91 62 89 62 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ067-075-
076-078-079.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 1:24 AM CDT ...New UPDATE...---------------
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