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785 FXUS64 KLIX 130510AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1210 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1101 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026- Near record high temperatures are expected for much of the week with little or no precipitation.- A cold frontal passage on Friday will bring cooler weather to the area for next weekend along with potentially hazardous marine conditions.&&.SHORT TERM...(Now through Friday) Issued at 1101 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026Large stacked upper high sitting directly over south TX today willstart to slowly meander around the NW gulf coast through Friday.This will keep the very nice October dry weather going. Coolnights will be replaced with warm days each day, and temps willclimb to near records each day. This stacked high will beresponsible for the above average warmth. The good thing is thetemps can't get out of control like they could in August as zenithangles are much lower now. But temps can still get warm as recordhighs are around 90F at all locations for this week. Today showsthe best chance of gettin to or breaking one or two of theserecords as it is the lowest high record through the week, like BTRcould reach 93F today and the old record is 91F which wasoriginally set in 1904 and last tied in 2017.The only real weather issue will be fog, which will be radiative,so any variable out of tolerance will dissipate it. October fognormally comes in layers or is low to the ground. Most of it canbe found where a moisture source is, like a marsh or river valleyor wooded area. It is rare for this to envelope heat islands like large cities and major roadways. This is mainly due to there not being enough moisture to condense and since it will be dry and very little moisture advection for the next few days, this fog should remain layered and outside cities. This is not marine fog,and marine waters are way too warm to promote or even maintain it.&&.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Monday) Issued at 1101 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026A longwave trough axis and attendant cold front will sweep through the region Friday night. This front will not bring any appreciable rain to the area due to a lack of return flow in advance of the system. This is noted quite well by the below average PWATS of around 1.1 inches expected Friday night. At most, some passing cloud cover will accompany the front as it moves through. A decent shot of cooler air will advect in behind the front on Saturday and this cooler airmass will remain in place through Sunday. Temperatures will be near average Friday night, but will be cooler than average for the weekend. Highs will only warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s on Saturday and Sunday and lows Saturday night will dip into the mid to upper 50s inland the lower 60s south of the tidal lakes and along the Louisiana coast. By Monday, the high over the area will begin to shift to the east. Winds will turn onshore and low level moisture will begin to feed into the area. However, the mid-levels will remain very dry and PWATS will still be below average. As a result, only some fair weather cumulus development is expected on Monday as temperatures warm back into the low to mid 80s.&&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 1101 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026Most terminals will fall into IFR briefly around sunrise today and again Wed morning with vis restrictions the main cause. IFR cigs will also accompany the low vis during the same time frame.&&.MARINE...Issued at 1101 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026Winds and seas remain rather benign across our local waters. Winds of 5 to 10 knots and seas of 1 to 2 feet can be expected through much of this week as high pressure builds into the region. Toward the end of the week a strong cold front will move into the region increasing winds and seas with likely small craft advisories this weekend.&&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...TELONG TERM....PGAVIATION...TEMARINE...TE
