Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1499 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE523
AWUS01 KWNH 151642
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-152230-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1499
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1241 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Areas affected...eastern KY into WV
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 151640Z - 152230Z
Summary...Isolated flash flooding may occur across eastern KY into
WV through late afternoon from training and hourly rainfall of 1-2
inches. Areal coverage of any higher rain rates/impacts is
expected to remain limited however.
Discussion...A small region of showers was observed on local radar
imagery over eastern KY at 1615Z, tracking toward the east at
about 20 kt. There has been a history of embedded training of
heavy rain within the area of showers containing MRMS-derived
hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches over the eastern third of KY since
12Z. According to 16Z data from the SPC mesoanalysis, eastern KY
contained ~2 inches of precipitable water and MLCAPE of 100-500
J/kg. A quasi-stationary front extended west to east from
north-central KY into southern WV and a weak rain-cooled outflow
boundary was becoming more apparent just south of the recent
rainfall in KY.
There will continue to be an isolated threat for 1-2 inch hourly
rainfall with the area of showers as it tracks into
central/southern WV over the next 1 to 2 hours, but potential for
additional shower/thunderstorm development will occur later this
afternoon into the early evening back to the west. RAP forecast
guidance shows MLCAPE increasing up to 500 J/kg for WV and near
1000 J/kg into eastern KY. In addition, 925-850 mb winds of 15-25
kt are forecast over KY into WV with an overrunning component of
the outflow and frontal boundary which may support a few widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms after 19Z. Mean westerly
steering flow could promote training and hourly rainfall of 1-2
inches within the moist environment. Isolated flash flooding may
result across the sensitive terrain of the Cumberland Plateau into
the central Appalachians.
Otto
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...
ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 39328025 39047940 38447928 37907960 37438029
37018207 36778405 37058460 37368468 37728464
38098447 38308409 38488296 38758227 39198118
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1499 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
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