IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 6:08 AM EDT016
FXUS63 KIWX 141008
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
608 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front will continue sliding southeastward today with
some showers possible as it does so.
- A lull in greater rain chances is expected later this
afternoon into tonight, but another round of showers and
storms is expected Thursday and Thursday night.
- There is a Marginal Risk of severe storms (mainly wind) along
and south of US Route 24 for Thursday evening. Confidence in
severe weather is low.
- Turning much cooler and windy for Friday with some lake effect
rain showers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026
With a ridge across SE TX and surface high pressure in the SE CONUS,
waves are forecast to ride atop the ridge and then work to break
down the ridge during this mid to late week period. As such, the
shortwave that helped to force the overnight showers and storms
moves quickly eastward toward the northeast, which allows a cold
front to slide southeastward into the Ohio River Valley pushing
showers southeastward out of the area early this morning. The
subsidence behind this wave is expected to quell any substantial
development behind it for the rest of the day, today. Meanwhile, an
area of low pressure rides northward along the stalled front
stretched down into the southern Plains and allows the portion of
the front stalled to our southwest to ride northeastward as a warm
front as early as late tonight into early Thursday. So, while dew
points fall below 60F across the whole area tonight, they are
expected to moisten back above 60F again Thursday afternoon and
night. It is interesting to see a stronger wave on the ECMWF bring
an inch of rain accums over 6hrs right up to our doorstep Thursday
morning and this appears to be from some stronger large scale
ascent. This large scale ascent continues through the area during
the afternoon. This is different on the GFS as it splits the
stronger area of large scale ascent into two separate smaller areas
to the north and south and then the large scale ascent during the
afternoon is more diffuse or non-existent. This provides some
uncertainty on our marginal chances for severe weather Thursday
afternoon/evening, especially on its location. Instability appears
to get into areas south of US-24 on both the ECMWF and the NAM (500
J/kg or less), but not the GFS. Instability is elevated and the
column looks very moist so this would likely be a heavy rain
scenario with some potential for gusty to damaging wind if it is
able to get through the inversion. Models handle the forcing during
this period differently so placement of rain bulls-eyes and
intensity of them are all over the place across the area. The GFS
has nearly rain during the 00-06z timeframe Thursday night,
whereas the ECMWF has a bulls-eye over 0.5" nearby.
Now, at the same time as an upper low washes out as it moves
northeastward towards the area Thursday, a deep mid level trough
dives southward and pushes the remnant energy northeastward quickly
and swings through later Friday through Friday night. This is
followed by a strong 1040 mb surface high diving into the
southeastern US. So we quickly have rain (with minimal convective
component by this point) overtaken by lake enhanced rain during the
day Friday. NAM Bufkit soundings indicate delta-Ts as much as 20 to
30F degrees using lake temps around 62 degrees. Lake induced
inversions rise up to 700 mb on these forecast soundings, which
fairly incredible. Deeper moisture profiles arrive Thursday night
and continue into early Friday morning before drier surface air
begins to work in and cut off better rain formation. Given the
strength of the surface high, much cooler air is able to enter the
area and low temps Friday night and Saturday night will fall into
the 30s. This turns the mind to frost possibilities, but Friday
night looks like there will still be a bit of gradient around and
probably the wind is still slackening at this point. Plus, we'll
still have lake clouds dissipating. A slightly better chance for
frost occurs Saturday night, but we'll have to see if winds are able
to slacken enough at that point.
From Saturday night, flow across the CONUS appears to slacken and
there is a period where nearly zonal flow is established until early
the following weak as another deep trough enters the western CONUS.
Because return flow becomes reestablished, expect a warming trend
with a return to seasonable highs at least by Sunday, if not by
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Showers and storms have cleared both locations. Some pockets of
stratus and fog have developed at KSBN and could materialize at
KFWA. Beyond the first few hours confidence on MVFR cigs is
somewhat low as upstream obs not showing a whole lot of impacts.
Will keep with higher end MVFR for the time being.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...Fisher
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 6:08 AM EDT---------------
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