JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 13, 1:40 AM EDT315
FXUS63 KJKL 130540
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
140 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry weather and near record warmth is on tap for today
and Wednesday.
- The next potential for rain arrives from the northwest by late
Wednesday and persists at times through Friday.
- Much cooler weather will arrive for the weekend - likely the
coldest we have seen so far this autumn.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 125 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 308 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
Broad mid-upper level ridging will reside over the Ohio and
Tennessee Valley region through the period, while surface ridging
is situated just to our southeast. This will result in low level
warm air advection beneath unusually high geopotential
heights/warmth aloft for this time of year. Inflow of gulf
moisture will not resume for our area until possibly near the end
of the period. Resulting nearly full sun (aside from morning
valley fog) on Tuesday should send temperatures to near record
highs. Good radiating conditions each night in combination with
the warm air advection will result in ridge/valley temperature
differences, with valleys saturating and fogging (especially in
southeast KY).
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
The period begins Wednesday with eastern Kentucky situated between
strong yet low-amplitude ridging over the Southeast US and strong
zonal flow to the immediate north, with a mid-level jet streak
situated across the Great Lakes region and a low/trough over
Hudson Bay. Upstream, an upper low is situated over the Four
Corners Region and is ushering a warm moist air mass from the
subtropical East Pacific Ocean into the central US. Meanwhile, an
upper trough is digging southeast through western Canada within an
active northern stream.
Models are in generally good agreement on the overall evolution of
the upper pattern through the long-term period. The passing jet
stream across the Great Lakes will push a cold front south to the
vicinity of the Ohio River Wednesday into early Thursday, before
strong warm advection and the loss of northern-stream upper support
pushes the front back north as a warm front Thursday. Meanwhile, the
western Canada trough will continue digging southeast into the
central US mid-week while partially phasing with and absorbing much
of the energy from the Four Corners low. This will strengthen the
upper trough and sharpen a strong cold front that will barrel across
the Ohio Valley and eastern CONUS late Thursday through Friday.
Transitory ridging moves across the region to end the weekend before
the remnants of the Four Corners low begins to move quickly toward
the Ohio Valley Monday as a weakening southern stream shortwave.
Showers and thunderstorms chances increase Wednesday into
Thursday, especially north of the KY Highway 80 corridor, with
strong warm advection continuing and PWs much higher than normal.
Shower chances end Friday as cold advection upslope activity on
the back side of the cold front as the upper trough passes. Much
above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s
are expected Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the front, with lows
in the 60s.
This front will briefly usher in a much colder and drier air mass
for Friday into the weekend. In fact, it is possible that Friday's
highs occur in the morning, with temperatures remaining near steady
or possibly falling through the afternoon as strong cold advection
occurs. Saturday's highs will be the coolest of the Fall season thus
far, likely only reaching the 50s for most locations, with Saturday
night's lows possibly requiring frost and/or freeze hazard issuances
as lows are forecast to drop into the 30s, with some potential for
a few locations to possibly reach near freezing. Warm advection
begins to increase again Sunday into Sunday night, with highs
moderating into the 60s and possibly lower 70s, with overnight
lows Sunday night in the 30s to mid 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
Valley fog will be around through dawn, bringing localized IFR or
worse conditions. While most will stay unaffected this fog may
impact a couple of the TAF sites (KSME and/or KSJS) for a brief
time into the early morning hours. A tempo for some light
visibility reductions have been included for those spots.
Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail through the period, with just a
few passing high clouds, amid light and variable winds.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...FAGAN/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 13, 1:40 AM EDT---------------
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