PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 12:06 AM CDT093
FXUS63 KPAH 140506
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1206 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Record warmth and elevated humidity levels will continue this
afternoon.
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast
on Wednesday through Thursday morning. A few strong to severe
storms cannot be ruled out.
- Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will
continue on Thursday, with the best chances along the I-64
corridor.
- A strong cold front will bring much cooler temperatures Friday
into next weekend, followed by another warmup early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Updated the aviation section for the 06Z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Stout and expanding H5 ridging and surface high pressure over
the southeast CONUS continue to advect very warm temperatures
and elevated humidity levels into the region. Despite some mid-
level cloud cover, temperatures will approach or exceed record
levels this afternoon. Increasing dew point temperatures into
the 60s will yield peak heat index values around the middle to
upper 90s, which may cause some heat related impacts. SPS for
heat-related impacts remains in effect for the western half of
the region until 22z.
Tonight, convection will develop over the southern Great Plains
and Ozarks as a surface low develops and moves northeast through
the Midwest along a frontal boundary positioned north and west
of the area. Lingering convection will move through the region
Wednesday morning and early afternoon. Depending on how much
clearing we week, development is possible Wednesday afternoon
and evening. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out
if this occurred due to the presence of modest 0-6 km shear and
instability. Any strong storms that do develop would pose a
damaging wind risk. SPC has introduced a marginal risk for the
entire forecast area for this potential.
Thursday may see a bit of a lull for areas south of I-64 as the
frontal boundary lifts north of the region. Clouds will keep
temperatures in the lower to middle 80s, but dew point
temperatures will be very muggy by mid-October standards in the
lower to middle 70s. Thursday night into Friday morning, the
cold front will sweep through the region as a deep H5 ridge
moves through the northern tier of the CONUS. Cannot rule out a
strongly-forced segment of strong/gusty storms along the leading
edge of the front, especially along I-64, where moisture and
instability will be highest. SPC's Day 3 outlook does have
another marginal risk that clips this area. Rainfall totals for
the Wednesday-Thursday period look pretty modest, generally
about 0.25-0.75".
Friday through next weekend will see much cooler conditions and
a return to dry weather. Gradient winds will be quiet gusty
(gusts up to 25-35 mph) on Friday following the frontal passage,
and this could lead to elevated fire danger for areas that miss
out on wetting rains in the next two days. Additionally, the
first widespread frosts of the season are possible Saturday
morning and especially Sunday morning. However, the cooldown
will be short-lived, as H5 ridging will increase over the region
early next week, and high temperatures will warm 5-10 degrees
above normal by next Monday-Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
High clouds move in overnight, with a line of showers and
thunderstorms reaching the Quad State early morning. The best
chance of thunder should be with the line early to late morning
from west to east. Vsby drops accompany heavier rain, along with
2500-3500ft cigs. Conditions are fairly likely to improve to VFR
for most of the afternoon hours in the south, with northern
terminals more likely to remain MVFR for clouds through the
afternoon hours. During the evening, cigs/vsbys deteriorate,
with IFR conditions becoming more commonplace at the end of the
TAF period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...ATL
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 12:06 AM CDT---------------
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