JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 1:37 PM EDT163
FXUS63 KJKL 111737
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
137 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain associated with the remnants of Hurricane Isaias will
affect most of the area at times into this evening.
- Warm and mainly dry weather will dominate the early part of the
new work week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
The forecast was updated to reflect latest precip trends on radar
and mesoscale models as the mid-upper level low approaches and
moves over today. Also adjusted timing/locations of thunder
potential. Isolated heavy rainfall occurred over portions of Bath
and Fleming counties this morning in a persistent convective band.
Confidence in additional occurrences is rather low, and have
foregone a Flood Watch at this point. Antecedent conditions are
more favorable further east in WV where heavier rain was more
widespread last night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 425 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
08Z sfc analysis shows the low pressure that was once Isaias
lifting into southeast Kentucky. This is bringing with it a batch
of showers and potential thunderstorms mainly concentrated to the
east. Meanwhile, more scattered showers are found to the west.
Despite the heart of the tropical remains arriving, the pressure
gradient is actually relaxing as it rides over the area.
Accordingly, the winds are down to more normal levels - at 5 to 10
mph generally from the east. Temperatures are mainly in the upper
50s to lower 60s under clouds of varying levels. At the same time,
dewpoints are similar to temperatures - generally in the upper 50s
and lower 60s - along with some fog patches.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in pretty
good agreement aloft this morning through the short term portion
of the forecast. They all depict the stacked upper low of former
Hurricane Isaias slowly working east northeast through this part
of Kentucky today and exiting tonight. 5h ridging then builds in
from the southwest on Monday with local height rises - but not too
substantial compared to locations southwest of the state. Again,
given the relatively small model spread, most of the forecast
grids came from unadjusted NBM data this morning. However, did
dry out the dewpoints a bit extra on Monday afternoon while
keeping temperatures as populated. As for PoPs, they were tweaked
per the latest model data from the CAMs today into tonight.
Sensible weather will feature a wet and cooler than normal end to
the weekend with the tropical remnants moving through today and
tonight. A stray thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out as this
system passes, but most places will be spared. For tonight, low
clouds and fog appear to be on the menu as the low level winds
switch more southwesterly in the sfc low's wake. This will keep
temperatures fairly uniform tonight, though drier conditions and
returning sunshine help readings rise above normal for Monday
afternoon with low 80s possible in the west and low to mid 70s
found in the east.
The main changes to the NBM starting point were made to the PoPs
today into tonight via the incorporation of the latest consensus
CAMs guidance. Kept temperatures mostly the same, though did allow
for a bit more afternoon drying in the dewpoints and RH for
Monday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
The extended portion of the forecast seems reasonable with focus
on the Southeast 5h ridge retreating out of Kentucky by mid week.
This should allow a frontal system to start to impact the state
from the north. Late in the week there looks to be a potential for
a stronger frontal passage in connection with a strong upper
trough working into the Ohio Valley - though the models are not
well aligned with this feature, at this point, reducing
confidence in the specifics and timing details of this upcoming
pattern change.
The previous long term discussion follows:
The extended period opens Monday morning with the remnant low
from Isaias departing the area towards the northeast into the
coastal Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England. A few residual
light showers across the far eastern fringes of the Jackson CWA
early Monday morning gives way to a strong upper-level ridge. An
unseasonably warm and dry start to the extended forecast period
across eastern Kentucky will yield to an active weather pattern by
mid-week, marked by a strong cold front, rising precipitation
chances, and a sharp autumn cool- down for the weekend.
The strong upper-level ridge centered across the Central US and
Ohio Valley, keeps eastern Kentucky under subsidence with
decreasing clouds through the day. 500 mb heights running in the
80th to 95th percentile for mid-October will push daytime
temperatures well above seasonal normals through Thursday,
generally ranging 5 to 10 degrees above normal in the upper 70s to
low 80s. Tuesdays forecast high temperature of 82 at the JKL
airport is within 2 degrees of the established record high of 84,
set back in 1985. In fact, the 00Z LREF ensemble shows a 35 to 40
percent chance of reaching 84 degrees.
Model soundings from Monday and Tuesday afternoons show steep
low-level lapse rates from the surface to 850 mb with a
pronounced dry layer above the boundary layer. To account for
this boundary layer mixing, raw model guidance was blended with
the deterministic NBM to slightly lower dew points both
afternoons. Through the day Tuesday, the pressure gradient
across the area increases ahead of an approaching system from
the Central Plains. This increased gradient could lead to breezy
conditions in the Bluegrass and areas along and west of I-75
Tuesday afternoon, where wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph are
possible. While warm, dry, and a little breezy, fire weather
should not be of too much concern as min RH remains in the
upper 30s to mid 40s through the day.
High pressure anchored off the Southeast coast will maintain warm
advection through mid-week. However, a weak surface boundary
sagging south across the Ohio Valley will bring low-end rain
chances to eastern Kentucky Wednesday afternoon and evening.
A more significant pattern shift occurs Thursday as a cut-off
low over the Four Corners ejects northeastward toward the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. As the boundary lifts back
north as a warm front, a strengthening southerly low-level jet
will tap directly into Gulf moisture, advecting some across the
Commonwealth. Model and ensemble agreement begins to drop toward
the second half of the extended period. It will be interesting to
see how this cutoff low from the Four Corners interacts with the
northern stream as it approaches the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
Thursday onward. Due to the uncertainty, the NBM deterministic
has maintained smoothed-out isolated to scattered PoPs across the
area Thursday and Friday. Some ensembles are showing PWATs across
eastern Kentucky climbing from around 1.0 inch early Thursday to
1.4 inches by Thursday evening and Friday morning - representing
an anomalous moisture plume near the 90th percentile for mid-
October. While the present forecast doesn't have heavy rainfall
due to model uncertainty, the anomalous moisture plume in some
ensembles hints that heavy rainfall near the end of the week
remains a possibility.
A cold front associated with this late-week system could pass
through eastern Kentucky during the day Friday. Behind the front,
cold, dry continental polar air is modeled to intrude into the
Ohio Valley Friday evening and Saturday. PWAT steadily falls
through Saturday, modeled by some as low as 0.2 to 0.4 inches.
Temperatures that were once 5 to 10 degrees above normal could
swing 5 to 10 degrees below normal by next Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
Widely varying conditions were present at TAF issuance, but were
mainly MVFR or worse. There were some pockets of VFR in southeast
KY, while the most widespread IFR or worse was near and north of
the Mountain Parkway. Light showers were also occurring over most
of the area.
Generally IFR or worse conditions are expected to become
predominant this afternoon and last through most if not all of the
night. Some lifting or eroding of ceilings is likely to arrive
from the west overnight. However, if it occurs, it would probably
give way to fog development. Meaningful, lasting improvement is
not expected until the day on Monday. VFR conditions are forecast
to return area wide by the end of the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK/GREIF
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 1:37 PM EDT---------------
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