JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 7, 1:57 PM EDT383
FXUS63 KJKL 071757
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
157 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather with mild days and cool nights holds through the end
of the work week.
- Breezy and rainy conditions are possible this weekend as a
strong weather system, including the remnants of Tropical Storm
Isaias (currently in the Gulf), moves northeast across the
region. There is still considerable uncertainty with this system
and potential impacts, and forecasts will become better refined
as the event nears.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 230 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
A weak warm front crosses the area this morning and becomes
stalled along the western escarpment of the Cumberland Plateau
this afternoon into the evening. A weak cold front then begins to
move into the area late tonight through Thursday as a digging jet
streak carves out a broad trough from the Upper Midwest through
the Great Lakes to the Northeast US by late tonight.
Dry weather and clear skies with overnight valley fog will
continue to prevail. The approaching cold front will result in a
noticeable yet still light southwesterly breeze by this afternoon,
with a few gusts of 15 to 20 mph possible in more exposed
locations. A slight breeze and associated mixing tonight may
limit the valley fog to the more sheltered valleys than what we
have seen in recent nights.
Highs will be a few degrees warmer than the last couple of days,
with upper 70s to around 80 degrees prevailing. Lows tonight will
be noticeably milder in the 50s given the approaching cold front,
though a few 40s will be possible in the coolest sheltered
valleys.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
The extended period opens with quiet conditions, fair skies, and
light winds through the remainder of the work week as surface
high pressure remains near eastern Kentucky through Thursday
before starting to shift towards the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on
Friday. This will keep dry weather in place across the region,
with unseasonably warm afternoon highs reaching the upper 70s to
lower 80s on both Thursday and Friday, with Friday a couple of
degrees warmer than Thursday. Clear skies and light winds will
favor ridge-valley temperature splits each night. Temperatures
each night should drop into the mid-to-upper 40s in the coldest,
sheltered valleys, while remaining in the 50s elsewhere, again
with Friday night a few degrees warmer than Thursday night.
All eyes turn to Tropical Depression Nine and the likelihood for a
major weather system to impact the Deep South to the TN Valley and
Southern Appalachians this weekend. Current NHC forecasts show
Tropical Depression Nine strengthening to a hurricane before
making landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast Friday evening.
Models then show the potential for rapid deepening of this upper-
level feature as strong non-linear heat/energy transfer occurs
from the lower to upper levels over MS and vicinity during the day
Saturday, before the remnant extratropical system moves northeast
across the TN and OH Valley regions late Saturday night into
Sunday.
The likely mutual amplification of the low-level and upper-level
systems will likely allow for the storm to maintain a well-defined
surface low well inland as it moves north toward the southern TN
Valley, and this will have implications on the forecast for the
Southern Appalachians and eastern Kentucky, as models depict a
fairly strong pressure gradient developing between the northward-
moving surface system and the surface high/ridging over the Mid-
Atlantic region beginning possibly as early Saturday morning and
lasting into Saturday night. This most likely means a period of
gusty winds developing over the Cumberland Mountain ridgetops
Friday night into Saturday, with daytime mixing Saturday allowing
for breezy conditions potentially impacting lower elevations
Saturday into Saturday night. Current modeling show max wind
gusts possibly reaching or exceeding 40 mph at higher elevations,
with some potential for 25 to 40 mph to reach lower elevations,
especially closer to the TN border.
Rainfall amounts are highly uncertain, but the low-level
southeasterly flow should significantly minimize heavy rainfall
impacts to the immediate north and west of the Cumberland
Mountains. This morning's daily WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlooks
only have a Marginal Risk for Saturday and Saturday night to the
west of Interstate 75, though brief periods of heavier rainfall
will certainly be possible as the system passes during this time.
Rain chances will diminish quickly from west to east Sunday into
Sunday night behind the departing system, with ridging building in
for Monday. Attention then turns to a cold front in northwesterly
flow aloft that likely approaches the area for Tuesday. Fair
skies will allow temperatures to warm into the upper 70s Tuesday
ahead of the cold front passage, while overnight lows will mostly
be in the mid to upper 50s from Saturday night through Monday
night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR conditions under clear to partly cloudy skies are expected
through the period at the terminals. Winds will be southwesterly
at around 5 to 9 kts this afternoon with gusts up to 15 kts
possible. Patchy valley fog will develop again overnight, but
will not affect TAF sites. Winds will turn northerly towards the
end of the TAF period as a cold front moves through.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC/GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON/HORTON/CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 7, 1:57 PM EDT---------------
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