IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 1:26 PM EDT522
FXUS63 KIND 051726
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
126 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry through Saturday with most days at near to above normal
temperatures under the influence of high pressure
- Fire weather conditions will require monitoring as several
afternoons will likely feature minimum RH values well down into
the 30s if not lower at times
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026
Adjusted temperatures and dew points slightly in anticipation of
efficient boundary layer mixing. Temperatures are already trending a
few degrees higher than guidance. Dew points are still in line with
guidance but we have trended them downward this afternoon with
additional weight on the HRRR. Relative humidity values may drop as
low as 30 percent. Overall, expect clear skies, a light
northeasterly breeze, and warm temperatures topping out around 70
degrees.
&&
.DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 1225 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026
The bulk of the seven day forecast remains the epitome of the old
forecaster's adage - Big Bubble, No Trouble.
Dry weather is forecast throughout the next seven days due to the
expansive influence of strong surface high pressure. Broadly
cyclonic flow will be in place over the region, though any forcing
from shortwave troughs pivoting through this flow will be displaced
well to the north, leaving the primary impact to the area to be mild
temperatures and low humidity throughout the period.
Temperatures will be mild and pleasant, with substantially less
humid conditions than experienced in recent weeks. This leaves the
primary weather hazard of concern as fire conditions, with afternoon
relative humidity values likely to drop into the 30 percent range on
many if not most days, and possibly even lower as blended guidance
often struggles to fully capture the degree of mixing out of
dewpoints in the afternoons with plentiful sunshine, even in
settings with relatively light surface flow.
Additionally, there is a low chance for patchy frost mainly
northeast Monday night into Tuesday morning as lows will have the
potential to drop into the upper 30s. Current numbers appear too
warm to support anything widespread or significant, but if we can
drop a couple/few more degrees in the outlying areas this may be on
the table.
In any case, several days of pleasant Autumn weather are expected
over the next week, and all are encouraged to enjoy the prolonged
period of mild fall days and cool nights.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026
Impacts:
- Patchy fog possible tonight at LAF, HUF, and BMG.
Discussion:
Surface high pressure will move eastward through the TAF period
causing winds to gradually become more easterly tonight and
eventually southeasterly on Tuesday. Clear skies will prevail.
Patchy fog is possible at the outlying sites and will be included in
the TAFs as BR for now. Visibility may be briefly lower depending on
wind speeds tonight, and the TAFs will be refined in later updates.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Eckhoff
AVIATION...Eckhoff
DISCUSSION...Nield
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 1:26 PM EDT---------------
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