PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 4, 1:26 PM EDT809
FXUS61 KPBZ 041726
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
126 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Update to Key Messages
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Quiet and dry weather through the end of the week. Monitor
frost potential for tomorrow night. Next chance of rain could be
Sunday into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The large-scale pattern across the Ohio River Valley favors
near-seasonable temperatures and generally dry weather, with
ridging over the West Coast supporting deep trough across the
Great Lakes and East Coast.
Following the passage of a cold front Monday, temperatures could
fall into the mid-30s across portions of the region Monday night
into early Tuesday. Given the ongoing growing season, frost will
become a concern, particularly across Forest, Jefferson (PA),
Preston, and Tucker counties, where headlines may be needed.
Cloud coverage and the potential of weak warm air advection will
need to be monitored closely. An increase in cloud coverage and
warm air could keep temperatures slightly warmer and limit frost
development.
Confidence remains high that dry conditions will persist through
at least Saturday. The next potential for rainfall may come from
the remnants of a tropical disturbance currently being
monitored by the National Hurricane Center Sunday into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Stratus is hanging tough locked against the eastern ridges but
dry air can be seen eating away and scattering the western edge
of this cloud deck. As such, DUJ/LBE/MGW begin the period with
varying flavors of restrictions that are expected to end this
afternoon as the clouds continue to scatter on the back side.
Elsewhere, cloudless skies and light winds continue VFR
conditions. A dry cold front sweeps the region tonight briefly
bringing clouds and a wind shift. Many of these clouds are
expected to be SCT or VFR but restrictions look possible at
FKL/DUJ closer to the actual system associated with the front.
Winds veer and increase behind the cold front tomorrow with
most ports expected to feature WNW gusts between 15-20 kts
tomorrow afternoon.
Outlook...
Outside of early morning river valley fog, VFR is expected
through Thursday under high pressure.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hefferan
AVIATION...AK
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 4, 1:26 PM EDT---------------
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