JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 4:00 PM EDT827
FXUS63 KJKL 032000
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
400 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer air moves back into the region overnight into early
Sunday, with rain chances returning in some locations for Sunday,
especially in southeast Kentucky.
- Dry and cooler weather will arrive areawide Sunday night, and
last through the first half of the week before a warming trend
over the second half of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 400 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
As of 20Z, visible satellite imagery shows low clouds still
occupying skies south of I-64. Ceilings remain low, but should
gradually improve through this evening. However, a mix of low
clouds and fog is expected to redevelop overnight and linger
into Sunday morning. Temperatures currently range from the
lower 70s along and north of I-64, where clouds have cleared
out this afternoon, to the mid to upper 60s south of I-64
where clouds persist.
A frontal boundary remains stalled just southeast of the
forecast area. Moisture from this front is expected to spread
back over eastern Kentucky overnight into early Sunday. Showers
may also redevelop over southeastern Kentucky, along the shared
state borders with Tennessee and Virginia. Deep moisture
(PWATs around 1.25 to 1.50 inches) interacting with an
approaching mid-level shortwave and low-level northeasterly
flow will generate a solid wave of overrunning rainfall. These
PWATs are actually quite anomalous for this time of year,
falling within the 90th to 97th percentile. All this said,
areas north of KY-80 will see little to no rain through
Sunday.
Tonight, temperatures will cool into the low to mid 50s across
northern portions of the area, and upper 50s to low 60s
farther south. Mostly cloudy skies are expected south of I-64
for much of Sunday, with high temperatures reaching the mid to
upper 70s. However, any lingering cloud cover into the
afternoon, as was saw today, may shave a few degrees off highs. A
secondary cold front then moves through from the northwest out of
the Ohio Valley later Sunday. Sunday night, temperatures are
expected to cool into the lower 50s, with a few spots clawing down
into the upper 40s, especially in the Bluegrass. Some patchy fog
may also develop late Sunday night, followed by dry weather
through much of the upcoming week.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 226 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
A cold front will be moving south across the area to begin the
period Sunday evening, bringing a prolonged stretch of dry
weather lasting through the upcoming week.
Monday will see the return to calm and quiet conditions across the
region. High pressure will build across the Great Lakes, before
migrating further east with time. A second high pressure system
will then build in across the Ohio Valley, sustaining our dry
weather through Friday with plentiful sunshine expected. Highs
each day through the week should be mostly in the 70s, with a few
80s returning to our southwest counties as early as Thursday.
Lows, especially on Monday and Tuesday nights, do look to be
pretty chilly in the lower 40s. A few sheltered valleys could dip
into the upper 30s, although model guidance does not really
support frost quite yet, with fog a better possibility in the
river valleys.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
Low clouds and ceilings have stuck around longer than
previously expected. However, current satellite imagery does
show the back edge of the low clouds and clearing across
northwest portions of the forecast area. Currently, clear
skies are being reported at KIOB and KSYM. Meanwhile, a mix of
MVFR and IFR ceilings persist over the remaining terminals. These
ceilings should slowly improve into high-end MVFR or low-end VFR
by 00Z this evening. This should last through 06Z overnight, after
which fog and low clouds are expected to spread back across the
area from the southeast. KIOB and KSYM may see reductions back
down to IFR, while terminals farther south may see periods of IFR
or LIFR through 14-15Z Sunday morning. Conditions will then
gradually improve toward the end of the TAF period. Winds will be
light and variable through the period, remaining under 10 kts.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GINNICK
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 4:00 PM EDT---------------
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