PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 2, 12:21 PM CDT204
FXUS63 KPAH 021721
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1221 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front continues moving across the Quad State today
bringing widespread showers and a few daytime rumbles of
thunder.
- Temperatures become more seasonably normal today through the
week ahead, with dry weather expected for the weekend and next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026
Upper low pressure remains in the Central Plains with a trough
stretching down into New Mexico. This low and trough are on a
weakening trend and will be folded into the synoptic flow across
the Ohio River Valley today. Moisture streams northeastward from
Texas to the Ohio River Valley bringing widespread showers to
the Quad State through the morning, continuing through the
afternoon in Western Kentucky. Instability remains limited
keeping severe weather at bay, with even lightning activity
sparse during the day. QPF is around 0.75-1.5in which, spread
out over a dozen hours, shouldn't produce any flooding issues.
The moisture plume is directed through Tennessee Saturday and
might result in a few showers in the Southern Pennyrile Sunday,
but PoPs have trended lower.
The cold frontal passage brings in much cooler air, with highs
only in the 70s today. High pressure drifts through the Great
Lakes maintains northeasterly flow through the weekend which
keeps highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. A second surge of
cold air early week as another high pressure area moves into the
Midwest drops lows to the 40s Monday night and Tuesday night.
Some warming is likely late in the week as a more southerly flow
develops. Models are strongly aligned on dry conditions Sunday
through the rest of the 7 day forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026
IFR to MVFR cigs are spread across the region. With the cold
front pushing in from the north low clouds will likely reform
just above the shallow cold air leading to 800-1200 foot
ceilings south of I-64 for the next several hours with cigs
possibly deteriorating even as the IFR visibility from rainfall
moves to the east. Low clouds will likely be slow to depart with
MVFR cigs reasonable to expect overnight before possibly
beginning to improve in the late morning Saturday. There will be
a sharp gradient of the grungy low cloud and likely mostly clear
skies that bisects the area.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...JGG
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 2, 12:21 PM CDT---------------
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