LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 1:37 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...255
FXUS63 KLMK 030537
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
137 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Slow moving cold front continues sliding southeast through the
region. Rain shower chances remain for some into the day
tomorrow.
* Early next week, clear skies and cooler temperatures return with
low temperatures in some areas dropping into the upper 30s to low
40s Monday and Tuesday night.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026
Cold front continues to work through the state with showers
diminishing. Precipitation seems to be diminishing faster than what
was previously thought and faster than what models have shown.
Decided to go ahead and adjust PoP grids to reflect this trend and
then just adjusted cloud cover as well. The rest of the forecast
remains on track
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026
The cold front is now sitting over central Kentucky as it continues
to the southeast. Winds are fairly light ahead of the front with 5
to 10 mph winds generally out of the north behind it. This is
dropping temperatures into the mid to upper 60s across southern
Indiana and near the Ohio River in central Kentucky. The earlier low
level jet has moved out of the area to the northeast as 2 inch peak
precipitable water values along the front are beginning to drop off
and retreat to the south. This trend is expected to continue through
the evening, reducing rainfall rates over central Kentucky.
Tonight, the heaviest rain will stay closer to the higher moisture,
precipitable water values in the 1.8 to 2 inch range, and slide east
across southern Kentucky. Areas farther to the north will see
lighter more scattered showers. Most of the rain will move off to
the east by sunrise Saturday morning with lows in the low 50s in
southern Indiana to low to mid 60s in far southern Kentucky.
Through the day Saturday, a few isolated showers are expected to
drift northeast through the Lake Cumberland area, but all other
areas in the CWA are expected to remain dry with mostly sunny skies
expected over the northern two thirds of the CWA. Surface high
pressure centered over the Great Lakes will keep east-northeast
winds in place as most places see the low to mid 70s for highs.
There will likely be a few places that only see the upper 60s
towards eastern Kentucky.
Saturday night, clear skies, light winds, and moisture from today
will likely lead to patchy fog as radiative cooling drops
temperatures towards dew points.
Sunday, stubborn cloud cover is expected to remain along and south
of the parkways during the day, but as we head into the overnight
period, a dry cold front will get pushed southeast towards the Lower
Ohio Valley by northwest upper flow. This will clear skies and bring
another round of light CAA ahead of another surface high behind the
front, keeping highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s for Monday and
Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday night, some low temperatures could drop
into the upper 30s to low 40s before the high pushes east through
the Great Lakes, returning WAA. Highs get lifted into the upper 70s
to low 80s on Wednesday before inching slightly warmer for the end
of the workweek.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 137 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
The surface cold front has pushed south of the TAF sites, and an
overall drying trend has taken hold over the area outside of a few
patches of drizzle early this morning. HNB/SDF have seen a return to
VFR conditions, however still hanging onto low MVFR/IFR ceilings at
LEX/RGA/BWG. These ceilings will persist until sunrise to late
morning at LEX/RGA, and could last well into the afternoon at BWG
for improvement back to VFR. Steady NE surface winds between 7 and
12 mph are expected today as surface high pressure stays positioned
to our north over the Great Lakes. Expect lighter winds and mostly
clear skies tonight, with perhaps some fog development possible
toward dawn on Sunday.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BTN
DISCUSSION...KDW
AVIATION...BJS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 1:37 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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