JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 4:35 AM EDT285
FXUS63 KJKL 280835
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
435 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High pressure supports cool early autumn weather for the start
of the week.
- Warmer temperatures return from the middle to the end of the
week, along with our next reasonable shot at seeing some rain.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over the Upper Midwest broad
enough to be in firm control of the weather for eastern Kentucky.
This has resulted in another night of clear skies, light wind,
and areas of fog in the river valleys - locally dense. Meanwhile,
temperatures are running in mid 40s in the sheltered valleys to
the low and mid 50s on the ridges. Dewpoints are generally in the
mid 40s throughout the area.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in quite
close agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict the fairly deep closed low trough
stacked over Long Island and responsible for the weakening
Nor'Easter affecting the Mid-Atlantic states and coastal New
England this past weekend. This feature is just far enough east
to not have much of an effect on the conditions over eastern
Kentucky - except to slow the 5h pattern enough that we are
holding in a steady state of benign conditions. Heights will be on
the rise as the trough starts to pull away to the east while
further weakening. Toward the end of the period, some weak ridging
will nudge into the state from the southwest while attention
turns to the remnants of Hurricane Polo working into the
westerlies over New Mexico - destined to come east. Considering
the small model spread, most of the forecast grids came from
unadjusted NBM data this morning. However, for the next few nights
extra terrain distinctions for the temperatures and lows were
included in the forecast depictions - along with some drying out
of the afternoon dewpoints. As for PoPs, they were kept near zero
through the period and beyond - in line with NBM and CAMs
guidance.
Sensible weather will feature another couple of days in a string
of very nice weather featuring cool mornings followed by mild
afternoons with plenty of sunshine - once the valley fog clears
out towards 10 am. Look for temperatures to continue to warm a
bit more each day into mid-week while dry weather holds firm. For
tonight, expect a repeat of mostly clear skies, areas of locally
dense valley fog, and ridge to valley temperature differences.
The main changes to the NBM starting point were made to
temperatures and dewpoints - adjusted the T grids tonight for
enhanced terrain details and the dewpoints slightly lower during
each afternoon owing to a deeper mix-down of drier air. As for
PoPs, kept them at minimum values through Tuesday evening - in
concurrence with the NBM and CAMs guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
Not too many changes to the forecast for this period. Confidence
remains high that high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley at the
start of the period will continue to keep us dry until Thursday or
Friday. Confidence is also high that we will be well into the
warming trend at the start of the period with highs increasing daily
until the 80s return around Wednesday. The 80s will stick around
until the weekend when highs should start to gradually drop down
closer to normal for this time of year.
Confidence remains lower for how our rain chances will evolve late
next week into the weekend. Model guidance continues the trend of
slightly slowing down the onset of PoPs to Friday evening and
peaking around the Sunday to Monday timeframe. Ensemble
probabilties for seeing >.1" of rain Saturday through Monday
remain on the higher end at 60-75%. The largest uncertainties at
this time remains to be how much rain we could see, where, and
when.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
Valley fog will be found through the first part of the morning,
bringing localized IFR or worse conditions, especially in
southeast Kentucky. However, the TAF sites are unlikely to be
affected. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds will hold
through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DISINGER
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 4:35 AM EDT---------------
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