MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 10:58 AM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...002
FXUS64 KMOB 281558
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1058 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1034 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
- A much drier airmass persists across the area, leading to an
elevated fire danger risk through Tuesday.
- A LOW risk of rip currents continues through Tuesday before
increasing to a HIGH risk Thursday for all area beaches.
- Rain chances increase by late week and into the upcoming
weekend. Heavy rainfall, which could lead to an increased
potential for flooding, is possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1034 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
The forecast remains fairly straightforward the next few days as
dry weather persists through midweek. Afternoon highs top out near
or just above normal in the middle to upper 80's through
Wednesday, with a few spots touching 90 degrees any given day.
Overnight lows follow a steady warming trend as we begin to advect
moisture back into the area. One more night of upper 50's to lower
60's exists for the area tonight, with upper 60's inland and lower
70's nearer the coast returning Wednesday night.
Our upper pattern changes quite a bit as we head into late week
and the weekend, shifting us from being dry and relatively cool to
wet and stormy. A trough split across the gulf from our previous
trough will gradually retrograde westward, bringing the area back
into a deep southerly fetch of moisture off the gulf. Upper
ridging attempts to develop east of this late week, further
reinforcing that southerly deep layer flow. This along with
several weak shortwaves moving across the area should set the
stage for a rather wet period Thursday through this weekend,
potentially persisting into early next week. It's difficult to
pinpoint any details on rainfall amounts and likewise flooding
concerns. However, with atmospheric profiles depicting deep, warm
moist air and the expectation for efficient warm rain processes
will promote the potential for very heavy rainfall and at least
localized flooding concerns with any storms.
Thanks to the strengthening onshore winds late week into the
weekend we will see an increase in the rip current risk for our AL
and FL panhandle beaches. We go from a Low risk today to a
Moderate risk Wednesday. A High risk for strong rip currents
follows for Thursday into the weekend. MM/25
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
General VFR conditions noted across the forecast area, even in
isolated rain showers moving southeast across the northeastern
quarter of the forecast area. These should not affect area TAF
sites this morning. General VFR conditions expected this afternoon
into the overnight hours. Light winds less than 10 knots expected
through the forecast.
/16
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1034 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Light and variable flow continues through Tuesday. A moderate to
occasionally strong onshore flow develops Wednesday, persisting
through the weekend. Seas increase to 3-6 feet late week into the
weekend. Small Craft should exercise caution beginning Wednesday
night. MM/25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 64 90 66 89 / 0 0 0 20
Pensacola 67 88 73 87 / 0 0 0 20
Destin 69 87 73 87 / 0 0 0 20
Evergreen 58 90 60 90 / 0 0 0 10
Waynesboro 59 90 60 90 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 57 88 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 59 90 65 89 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 10:58 AM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...---------------
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