MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 1:02 AM CDT ...New DISCUSSION...355
FXUS64 KMOB 280602
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
102 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 102 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
- A much drier airmass will continue filtering into the area,
leading to an elevated fire danger risk through Tuesday.
- A LOW risk of rip currents continues through Tuesday before
increasing to a HIGH risk Thursday for all area beaches.
- Rain chances increase by late week and into the upcoming
weekend. Heavy rainfall, which could lead to an increased
potential for flooding, is possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Deep northerly to north-westerly flow aloft will persist through
Tuesday between a mid/upper ridge west of the Mississippi River
and a vertically-stacked low pressure system lifting northeastward
along the Northeast U.S. coast. A dry airmass below 700mb will
continue to filter into the region from the north, with afternoon
dewpoints lowering to between 45-50 degrees across nearly our
entire area, with the exception of the immediate coast where
afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from 50-55 degrees. The
risk for wildfires is the main concern as minimum relative
humidity (RH) values this afternoon are expected to lower to
around 23-28% away from the coast, with some lower humidity values
possible across south-central Alabama. Similar conditions are
expected Tuesday with the focus of afternoon RH values around
20-28% generally along and north of Highway-84. Some recovery is
expected to the south with RH values mostly in the 30s. We still
expect the sustained winds and wind gusts to remain around 10 mph
or less, well below Red Flag Warning criteria. However, factoring
in the dry antecedent conditions and Moderate to Severe Drought
across much of the area, there exists an elevated fire danger risk
through at least Monday night and possibly into Tuesday.
There are mid-level clouds to our northwest that will spread over
our area through Monday, so we are expecting more cloud cover
today compared to Sunday. This should help bring high temperatures
down a degree or two compared to Sunday, but it will still remain
quite warm with temperatures ranging from 85-90 degrees. Lows
tonight will gain be cool with the dry airmass in place, again
dropping in the middle to upper 50s inland and the lower to middle
60s over coastal counties and into southeast Mississippi. Highs
on Tuesday will be a degree or two warmer compared to today as
plenty of sunshine returns. A surface ridge will then set up
across the southern Appalachians and the Southeast region,
allowing for winds to slowly shift easterly on Tuesday
(southeasterly along the coast) to southeasterly for all areas
Wednesday and Thursday. This will allow low-level moisture to
return into the forecast area with heat indices increasing into
the middle to upper 90s by Thursday. Rain chances also start to
increase Thursday, and especially into Friday and the upcoming
weekend as an upper trough approaches from the west. Although we
are still too far out to get into details, there are some
indications that we could enter a rather active pattern which
features several rounds of very heavy rainfall over multiple days,
which could ultimately lead to an increased potential of
flooding. We will continue monitoring trends over the coming days.
A Low Risk of Rip Currents is expected to continue through Tuesday
night. The rip current risk quickly increases to a High Risk by
late Wednesday night as onshore flow increases. /22
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light and variable
winds become generally northeasterly at 5-8 knots this morning.
SS/97
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
A rather light and variable flow pattern will continue through
Tuesday. Flow will transition to a moderate southeasterly flow by
midweek, with seas increasing to 3-5 feet. Exercise Caution
headlines may become necessary. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 89 64 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 88 67 88 73 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 87 69 87 73 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 87 58 90 60 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 87 59 90 60 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 85 57 88 59 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 88 59 90 65 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 1:02 AM CDT ...New DISCUSSION...---------------
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