PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 24, 12:12 PM CDT939
FXUS63 KPAH 241712
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1212 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A pleasantly cool/dry period will persist thru the weekend,
with mostly 70s and 50s slated for highs and lows.
- A warmup to more summer-like 80s and 60s can be expected by
the middle of next week, which is when appreciable rain
chances likewise return.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
An almost Rex-like blocking pattern holds thru the weekend, with
the influx low level flow pattern maintaining north to
northeasterlies for the bulk of that period. Satellite and
sounding data shows extensive moisture reinforcents on the way,
cited in the soundings lower column up to about 5K (BNA) to 7K
(ILN) feet holding firm, so BINOVC may be hard to mix to more
abundant sunshine during this at least near term period, and sky
condition/temps have been adjusted to account as the NBM hasn't
been exceptional with its capture. This pattern peristence will
keep pleasantly cooler and drier conditions with 70s and 50s
predominant for highs and lows.
That will be followed by a warmup that ensues for the middle
part of next week, to more summer-like 80s and 60s for highs and
lows as the surface influx flow returns to southerlies
coincident with the block breaking down. Developing/approaching
troffing from the west will likewise return pcpn chances, though
it is a little early to speculate on strong/svr storm
chances...but that's the time to look for it as pops start to
rise with the building heat/humidity and an approaching system
entering the medium to longer range forecast picture. Noted the
6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks Above/Above for Temps/Pcpn, so
perhaps another prolonged duration warmer period is in store if
it pans out.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
Low level decks with restricted CIGS will maintain but gradually
lift thru the course of the afternoon. While BINOVC is
anticipated to offer some temporary base improvements at times,
we think the models underplay of the reinforcing low level
moisture from N-NE inflow keeps a more pessimistic sky condition
forecast, certainly in the first half of the forecast, so have
adjusted the terminals accordingly.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 24, 12:12 PM CDT---------------
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