LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 24, 6:52 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...380
FXUS63 KLMK 241052
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
652 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Cloudy conditions are expected for much of the day. However, some
partial clearing is expected in the afternoon. Highs today will
be in the lower 70s.
* Clearing skies and light winds tonight will allow areas west of I-
65 to cool into the lower 50s. East of I-65, lows will cool into
the mid-upper 40s.
* Tranquil weather will continue through the weekend. A brief
warmup will be seen early next week before the next weather system
arrives around mid-week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026
Stubborn low-level cloud cover continues to blanket the region this
morning. Temperatures were generally in the lower 60s across
southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky. Readings across
southern Kentucky were slightly milder with mid 60s being reported.
For the remainder of the overnight, low-level cloud cover with areas
of mist and drizzle are expected and overnight lows will bottom out
in the low-mid 60s.
Moving into the daytime hours, inverted surface trough axis will
continue to push off to the east while a closed upper low moves
eastward over the Mid-Atlantic. This morning will feature cloudy
skies a low-level stratus will continue across the region. However,
during the afternoon hours, diurnal heating may be strong enough to
help mix out the inversion aloft and allow the clouds to start to
break up. Should this scenario play out accordingly, we'll see
temps warm into the lower 70s this afternoon. On the other hand, if
mixing is not as strong as the models suggest, temperatures will
struggle to get out of the 60s in the north and around 70 in the
south.
For tonight, model time-height progs show low-level moisture
scouring out with skies becoming mostly clear during the overnight
period. If good clearing occurs, we'll see temperatures fall into
the lower 50s along and west of I-65. East of I-65, lows in the
upper 40s will be possible. The best chance of good clearing and
radiational cooling will be across the northeast Bluegrass where
lows in the lower 40s could be attainable.
On Friday, mid-level ridging to the west of us will start to
gradually build eastward. We'll have a northerly flow aloft with
the column continuing to dry out. Partly to mostly sunny skies are
expected with highs topping out in the 72-77 degree range. Another
cool night of temperatures is expected for Friday night with lows in
the lower-mid 40s over the Bluegrass and in the lower 50s in the I-
65 corridor and points west.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026
Saturday through Wednesday...
Moving into the weekend, a very blocky upper level pattern is
forecast over the eastern CONUS with a large ridge axis extending
from the Gulf northward into the Great Lakes. A closed upper level
low will be found across New England with an early fall Nor'easter
bringing rain and winds to much of central and northern New England.
Locally, we'll be under the influence of the upper ridge for
Saturday and into Sunday. Daytime highs on Saturday and Sunday will
top out in the in the 71-76 range with overnight lows cooling into
the upper 40s in the east with lower-mid 50s in the west.
Moving into next week, the upper pattern will start to shift a bit
as the closed low over New England lifts northeastward into SE
Canada. Out across the western US, a fairly strong trough axis will
move into the four corners region. Model solution divergence really
starts to show up by Tue/Wed as the GFS solutions maintain a more
progressive flow pattern with the upper trough pushing into the Ohio
Valley by mid-week. On the other hand the Canadian and Euro
solutions appear to want to close off the trough axis into an upper
low and then spin it slowly eastward. The GFS solution would argue
for shower/storm chances to arrive by Wednesday, while the
Euro/Canadian solutions would result in drier conditions across the
region. For now, will continue to use the multi-model consensus
here which will keep the forecast dry for Mon/Tue and introduce some
chance PoPs in for Wednesday.
Temperatures will continue to moderate through the period with highs
on Monday warming into the mid-upper 70s with some lower 80s over
southern Kentucky. Depending on the eventual evolution of the upper
level pattern, a warm shot of air will arrive on Tuesday with
temperatures warming into the low-mid 80s in across southern IN and
northern KY with upper 80s across southern KY. Similar readings are
expected on Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 652 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026
Low stratus will continue at the terminals this morning with cigs
hanging around the IFR threshold. Winds will remain out of the
northeast but will be light. During the afternoon hours, we should
see clouds start to scour out with cigs rising through the MVFR
range and becoming VFR by late afternoon. Surface winds will veer
from the northeast and shift more toward the east-northeast. VFR
conditions are expected tonight and into Friday.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 24, 6:52 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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