PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 23, 7:36 PM EDT975
FXUS61 KPBZ 232336
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
736 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Trends support the coastal low staying east and keeping precip
away for the weekend.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) One last day of scattered showers across eastern Ohio before dry
weather returns
2) Below-normal temperatures linger through mid-week and moderate by
the weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The near term for today features the coastal low shifting north
up the coast with a continued trough edging into the Upper Oh
Valley area creating an environment for additional scattered
showers across the area. Instability is very little if at all
with MU CAPE values in Ohio around 100 - 200 J/Kg. This means
showers will be ending by this evening as the last of the
forcing associated with the trough finally shifts to the east.
High pressure will filter into the area by Thursday nosing south
into the area from the height center over the northeastern
CONUS. Temperatures are expected to be a good 5 to 7 degrees
cooler than normal for Thursday.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
The below normal temperatures are expected to continue through
the upcoming weekend. The high center over the Upper Great Lakes
will filter in cooler air into the region. Some locations will
see temperatures approach the 30s. The main location in the
forecast area would be Canaan Valley in eastern Tucker where
there is a 90% chance of temperatures below 40 degrees Thursday
night. Thus, some frost has been put in the grids over the
higher terrain. Temperatures look to be below normal through the
weekend until Tuesday next week where a warm up is expected.
The other change is the potential for precip on Saturday from a
coastal low. Trends in the ensembles have the low off the coast
as precip over western PA or any of the PBZ CWA will avoid the
potential for precip. It should be noted that not even CTP's
area will see any pops.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will continue to build southward from the NE CONUS
through tonight and Thursday. This will push a drier airmass
over the area, ending lingering northern WV showers this evening
and slowly eroding cloud cover from north to south into the
morning. Brief MVFR ceilings are possible through 02Z at ZZV/MGW
before areawide VFR is forecast for the balance of the TAF
period.
Easterly wind will continue through the period, averaging 5-10
knots tonight and suppressing any fog formation. Around 10 knots
of easterly wind, minus today's gusts, can be expected for the
daylight hours of Thursday.
Outlook... A prolonged period of VFR returns for the remainder
of the week and into the weekend. Friday and Saturday morning
produce the best chance for local restrictions due to steam fog
migrating off of the rivers.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MLB/Shallenberger
AVIATION...CL/Lupo
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 23, 7:36 PM EDT---------------
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