Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1367 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE261
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1367
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Areas affected...Appalachians
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 231950Z - 240100Z
SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms capable of 2"/hr continue to
develop along/west of the central and southern Appalachians into
this evening. Scattered flash flooding should continue, possibly
into the overnight.
DISCUSSION...As of 1930Z...Scattered thunderstorms extend along a
surface trough from southern Ohio to northwest Georgia in a warm
sector east of an upper low over southwest Ohio. A channel of
moisture (PW around 1.5") and instability (SBCAPE of 1000-2500
J/kg) extends along the west side of the southern Appalachians up
through eastern Kentucky. Generally light deep layer flow will
maintain slow movement with hourly rates up to 2". Scattered flash
flooding is occurring along this trough. Recent IR imagery
indicates recent growth occurring along this trough.
Recent HRRR and RRFS runs favor the southern portion of the
outlook area for late afternoon development, though they are
certainly underdone with the ongoing activity near the Ohio River.
The main limiting factor is moisture with 1.5" PW around 1
standard deviation above normal. However, efficient warm rain
processes and slow motion will continue to promote excessive
rainfall, particularly over sensitive terrain and urban areas.
This activity may continue into the overnight and warrant a
subsequent discussion.
Jackson
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...RLX...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 39658364 39548310 39038272 39148198 39108129
38788097 37418188 36028284 34918371 34068479
34148533 35238559 36928447 38208402 38968393
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1367 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
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