PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 21, 1:50 PM CDT260
FXUS63 KPAH 211850
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
150 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible mainly over
the Ozark Foothills of southeast Missouri this afternoon. A
few showers could linger through the night and into early
Tuesday. Otherwise, the forecast is dry through the end of the
work week.
- Fall weather is arriving right on time with the astronomical
beginning of autumn. In general, temperatures will be near or
a few degrees below normal through next weekend. Highs will
be in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows will be in the mid
to upper 50s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
An upper-level low over the northern Plains today will slowly
move east southeast into the Ohio Valley through Wednesday.
Disturbances in the cyclonic flow to its south will bring a
chance of showers to southeast Missouri this afternoon through
early Tuesday. With some lingering moisture this afternoon,
instability is building over the Ozark Foothills and a few
thunderstorms will be possible. Very localized gusty winds will
be possible to go along with lightning and brief heavy
downpours. Any instability will be lost with sunset, so no
thunder is expected tonight.
Cool, surface high pressure will continue to build across the
Quad State, and there will be plentiful cloud cover, especially
across the northern half of the area until the upper low passes
to the east of the area Wednesday. High pressure aloft will then
build overhead Thursday into Friday and possibly through the
weekend, while surface high pressure remains in entrenched over
the region. This will produce some gorgeous fall conditions.
At some point over the weekend, enough energy may impinge on
the upper ridge to bring a small chance of showers or
thunderstorms most likely to southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois, but the details are too murky at this time to get
excited about any rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
An MVFR ceiling at KMVN may linger through much of the afternoon
before eventually lifting to VFR levels. Otherwise, the TAFs are
VFR. A larger mass of IFR/MVFR ceilings lurks to the north and
northwest of the region, but mixing should curtail its movement
this afternoon, and there shouldn't be enough of a push for it
bodily move southward into or through the region. Where skies
are clear tonight, there should be enough northeast wind to
prevent fog formation.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 21, 1:50 PM CDT---------------
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