MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 22, 1:02 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...409
FXUS64 KMOB 221802
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
102 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
- Isolated, mainly afternoon and early evening showers and
storms are possible Tuesday. A few storms could be strong with
gusty winds being the main threat.
- Above normal temperatures push heat indices into the 98-104
degree range through Wednesday.
- A cooler and drier airmass moves into the area late this week
into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
Through Thursday...a closed upper low over the Florida Gulf coast
has opened into a mean upper trough over the Southeast, shifts east
as an upper high over the Southern Plains builds over the Southeast.
A closed upper low meanders around over the northeastern Conus, and
in combination with a surface low organizing off the East Coast,
shifts a surface boundary north of the Southeast south over the
region. The push initially is greater west of the Mississippi River,
shifting a drier airmass southeast over the Southeast, and dropping
precipitable h20 values around 2" over the forecast area southward.
Guidance is advertising precipitable h20 level to the 1.4"-1.6" by
Wednesday night and 1"-1.3" by Thursday night. In combination with
the building upper ridge, isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms are
expected Tuesday, with a dry Wednesday and Thursday. As with this
time of the year, enough instability, both MLCapes (around 2500J/kg)
and DCapes (700-A light, diurnally driven flow is expected through mid week.
A cold front moving over area waters Wednesday night into Thursday
will bring a more moderate northeasterly flow for the rest of the
week into the weekend.
/161000J/kg) are enough for a few strong to marginally severe
pulse type storms to be possible Tuesday. The surface low off the
East Coast moves north along the East Coast though the end of the
week as the upper low over the Northeast swirls south over the
East Coast, bringing a cooler airmass (dare I say a cool front) to
go with the drier air that has moved over the Southeast.
Temperatures remain well above seasonal norms through mid week, with
high temperatures in the 90 to 95 degree range Tuesday and
Wednesday. The aforementioned cooler air begins to move southeast
across the forecast area, with high temperatures Thursday ranging
from the upper 80s over the northeastern half of the forecast area
to low 90s southwest and near the coast. Heat indices in the 98 to
104 degree range Tuesday and Wednesday drop into the 90-99 degree
range Thursday as the cooler air combines with the drop in moisture
levels. Low temperatures see the same drop, from low to mid 70s
Tuesday night to mid 60s to around 70 Thursday night.
Friday through Monday, the upper low over the East Coast swirls
around for another day or two before organizing into a deep upper
low over the Mid Atlantic coast and moving off. This shifts the
upper high over the Southern Plains south over old Mexico. The drop
in temperatures closer to seasonal norms remains through the
weekend, with coolest temperatures being over the
northeastern/eastern half of the forecast area.
Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, generally
light flow over the Gulf will keep the rip risk low through mid
week. A more moderate easterly flow sets up along the northern Gulf
coast the end of the week into the coming week, bringing a moderate
to high risk of rip currents in the coming weekend.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period. With plenty of
moisture and instability in place, scattered showers and storms
are expected for most of the area from now through the evening
hours. Once daytime storms end, winds are expected to calm
overnight before yet another morning of northeast flow.
/KL
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
A light diurnal flow prevails through Wednesday, with winds becoming
onshore flow each afternoon then offshore at night. A light
to moderate northeasterly flow develops Thursday and briefly becomes
a bit stronger on Friday. Seas will be around 1 foot, then slowly
build to 2 to 4 feet Thursday into Friday. Small craft may need to
exercise caution over the open Gulf mainly during Friday morning.
/29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 72 93 72 91 / 10 0 0 10
Pensacola 75 92 75 90 / 10 10 0 10
Destin 76 92 75 89 / 0 10 0 10
Evergreen 69 93 68 89 / 10 0 0 10
Waynesboro 70 93 67 91 / 10 10 0 0
Camden 70 92 69 88 / 10 0 0 10
Crestview 70 93 71 89 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 22, 1:02 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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