IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 16, 7:21 PM EDT656
FXUS63 KIWX 162321
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
721 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and a few isolated storms are possible late
this evening into the early overnight hours, mainly across
portions of far southwest lower Michigan and northwest
Indiana. Severe weather is not expected, but a few wind gusts
over 35 mph are possible.
- Dry Monday and Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s.
- The next chances for rain and storms arrive Tuesday night into
Wednesday. At this time, the severe weather and flooding risks
are very low.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 101 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026
While satellite and radar trends shows diminishing showers early
this afternoon, widely scattered showers and storms are expected
to redevelop this afternoon and evening, pivoting around the
axis of an area of low pressure centered over Lower Michigan.
While I can't completely rule out the chances for a strong to
severe storm this afternoon and evening south of US 24,
confidence is very low. Moderately instability is favorable for
thunderstorm development, but shear and lapse rates are poor.
This will likely end up being a similar scenario to yesterday
where clusters of storms may produce brief gusty winds but not
reach severe thresholds. CAMs show one final round of scattered
showers and storms this evening into tonight developing over
northwest Indiana with a weak trailing cold front, but rain and
storm chances will come to an end by daybreak Monday. Clouds are
expected to linger overnight and clearing will commence behind
the frontal passage.
There is high confidence that our active weather pattern finally
comes to an end! Monday and Tuesday will be dry as an area of high
pressure builds into and across the Great Lakes. Temperatures will
be seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.
Dewpoints on Monday and Tuesday during peak diurnal heating hours
will only be in the low to mid 60s, which will feel much more
refreshing than our past week of low to mid 70s dewpoints!
As troughing builds over the eastern US and an upper level ridge
builds over the western US, another chance for rain and storms comes
Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front slides from northwest
to southeast through our forecast area. As of now the risks for
flooding and severe weather are low, but I would not be surprised if
our forecast area is added into future SPC outlooks as Wednesday
gets closer. Particularly, along and south of US 30 may be at risk
for isolated damaging wind gusts Wednesday as the timing of the
frontal passage coincides with peak diurnal heating, although
confidence is low at this time.
High pressure then builds into the Great Lakes and Midwest regions
again by the end of the week into next weekend. Temperatures
remain near to just slightly below normal with highs in the
upper 70s to near 80 degrees through the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Much of northern Indiana is situated between two mid level
troughs this evening. This has produced a lull in
isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms. The next mid level
trough/MCV-type feature across northern Illinois will continue
eastward to the western Great Lakes this evening. Some moderate
instability is available for this short wave to work with that
should aid in some increasing convective coverage across
northeast IL/Lake MI vicinity through late evening as this short
wave and cold front shift east. Higher res guidance has been
depicting some potential of multi-cell cluster to impact
terminals late evening/early overnight and given above synoptic
setup and overall lower background deep layer shear, this still
appears to be a possibility. With some increasing in near sfc
CIN this evening, confidence remains on the low side regarding
coverage of these showers and storms, so have limited mention to
PROB30 mention between 02Z and 06Z at KSBN/KFWA. Some post-frontal
MVFR cigs are possible tonight with greater potential at KFWA.
Frontal placement by Monday afternoon should place greater
threat of showers and thunderstorms to the south of the
terminals with dry weather and VFR conditions expected.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 16, 7:21 PM EDT---------------
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