Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1076 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE650
AWUS01 KWNH 170135
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-170733-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1076
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
934 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Areas affected...eastern Missouri into central/southern Illinois
and southwestern Indiana
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 170133Z - 170733Z
Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and
forming a complex near/west of St. Louis Metro. Flash flood
potential will accompany this activity through 07Z/2p central.
Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms have increase in coverage
across eastern Missouri recently. The storms are being forced by
a couple of influences: 1) weak mid-level troughing migrating
through zonal flow aloft across the region and 2) low-level
confluence associated with a trough/weak front migrating into the
region from the northwest. These factors were forcing
thunderstorm development amid an abundantly moist airmass (2+ inch
PW) with very strong instability over the Missouri Ozarks (3000+
J/kg MLCAPE), resulting in convective activity with heavy rainfall
potential. Appreciable steering flow exists (around 20 knots or
so), although the east-west orientation of storms near St. Louis
Metro and the propagating nature of convection farther west (near
Jefferson City/Rolla) suggests both the potential for mergers and
eventual upscale growth into a forward propagating complex. The
mergers will likely result in areas of 2 inch/hr rain rates near
St.Louis and along the I-70 corridor in the near future.
Meanwhile, FFG thresholds of around 1.5-2 inch/hr will be exceeded
at times -- also suggestive of flash flood potential.
Ultimately, the extent of the flash flood risk across the
discussion area will depend on the extent and maturation fo
convective coverage and potential for any localized
training/backbuilding to unfold. CAMs suggest that local
backbuilding is a possibility in this regime even though
forward-propagating clusters/lines may end up being the primary
convective mode. Flash flood potential will exist for several
hours tonight (through 07Z).
Cook
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...SGF...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 40008930 39818699 38328684 37628813 36958972
36879203 38479202 39219162 39689110
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1076 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
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