IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 29, 2:47 AM EDT727
FXUS63 KIND 290647
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
247 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet weather with near normal temperatures through Friday
- Showers and thunderstorms return this weekend, heavy rain possible
- Warming trend possible for the first week of August
&&
.DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026
The beginning of the forecast period remains similar with high
pressure building in from the NW behind the prior week trough. This
will aid in subsidence over the region, dropping dew points into the
low 60s during the daytime hours and upper 50s at night. A weak
shortwave on the SW edge of the high may push a few lingering cirrus
overhead and could provide enough low level moisture for a few
diurnal cumulus, but otherwise clouds will be mostly clear through
Thursday. This all said, there is fairly strong NW flow remaining
aloft, and within it, opaque smoke cover from upstream fires may
lead to slightly hazy skies at times, for this reason cloud cover
will be made at least 20 percent. With 850mb temperatures remaining
the same over the next 48 hours, surface temperatures should respond
accordingly; although the slightly drier near surface air may allow
for afternoon highs to push a bit higher with the current expected
highs between 84-86F.
As we approach the weekend, super-geostrophic flow over the Rockies'
ridge will help induce pressure falls over the Missouri Valley. Due
to the placement of the jet, much of the pressure depletion will be
due to very strong diffluence and thus weak steering flow with a
majority of the ensemble members showing the mid level low becoming
detached from the flow aloft. While ensemble members agree on this
overall pattern, the path and the strength of the cutoff low very
some due to the lack of strong dynamics. While rain looks generally
likely for the weekend, specifics regarding magnitude of QPF and
timing are uncertain, and likely will remain that way until
ensembles are able to ingest the cutoff low directly.
For next week, there are not any strong signals within the 300mb
pattern leading to fairly high uncertainty on precipitation.
However, regarding temperatures, the polar jet looks to be well
displaced to the north, with should allow for above average 850mb
temperatures and therefor some likelihood of above average surface
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 121 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Impacts:
- Low probability patchy fog tonight
Discussion:
Elevated smoke along with a few cirrus will continue through the
night, followed by a few cumulus on Wednesday.
The main question continues to be if any patchy ground fog
develops early this morning. Drier air moving in along with some
light winds continuing should lower the odds for fog enough to
leave mention out of the TAFs. However, can't completely rule it
out.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...Updike
DISCUSSION...Updike
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 29, 2:47 AM EDT---------------
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