IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 16, 1:35 PM EDT483
FXUS63 KIND 161735
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
135 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and humid conditions expected again today, isolated showers
and storms possible this evening
- Peak heat indices around 100 degrees each afternoon through
Saturday
- Greater chance for showers and storms Friday through the first
half of the weekend, primarily during the afternoon and evening
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 954 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026
Quiet weather conditions are ongoing across central Indiana as
surface high pressure remains the dominant weather feature. Aloft,
upper ridging is being suppressed and gradually pushed further south
due to subtle waves moving through the northern Great Lakes.
Isolated to widely scattered diurnal showers and a few storms are
possible this afternoon into the evening, primarily across southwest
portions of the area where deeper moisture is in place. Further
northeast, weakening large scale ascent may allow for isolated
diurnal showers or a stray storm to develop, but less impressive
moisture leads to lower confidence.
Patchy canadian wildfire smoke has made its way into far northeast
portions of Delaware and Randolph county this morning. Light surface
flow becoming more northerly later today could allow for the smoke
to gradually shift further south into more north/northeastern
counties across central Indiana.
&&
.DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026
Upper ridging and surface high pressure will continue to promote
mostly quiet weather for much of the day. The stagnant suppressed
airmass will also keep hot-humid conditions in place with poor air
quality across portions of central Indiana. A Heat Advisory remains
in effect for north/northeast portions of central Indiana, including
the Indianapolis metro, from noon through 8PM EDT today.
Isolated convection appears possible this evening, mainly in the far
SW and far N, as the upper ridge starts to gradually breaks down.
Latest CAMs generally depict convection developing after 4PM due to
the weakening large scale subsidence above the stagnant hot-humid
airmass.
A more active pattern is expected starting tomorrow with multiple
disturbances moving through the region. The first disturbance will
move in on Friday supporting higher rain chances. Modest ascent from
the mid-upper level feature combined with daytime heating of a hot-
humid airmass will promote numerous showers and thunderstorms by the
afternoon hours. Additional scattered convection can be expected
late Saturday as another shortwave and associated cold front push
through.
Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the approaching cold
front late Saturday, along with modest enhancement of mid-upper
level flow, could support a few stronger thunderstorms, primarily
across northern portions of central Indiana. Forecast soundings
depict up to 25 kt of effective shear, strong destabilization with
steep low-level lapse rates, and DCAPE values as high as 1200 to
1400 J/KG. These parameters suggest the potential for loosely-
organized storms capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts.
Isolated hail cannot be ruled out, but relatively weak deep-layer
shear should limit the threat. Efficient rainfall rates from warm
rain processes could also result in localized flooding during the
period.
Going into Sunday and next week, long range guidance generally
depicts upper ridging and weak surface high pressure building in
Sunday. This will provide mostly quiet weather conditions until
another shortwave approaches late Monday into Tuesday morning. Exact
details remain uncertain due to diverging model solutions. It is
worth noting guidance suggest more significant cold air advection
with this disturbance which favors a cooler and drier pattern
towards the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026
Impacts:
- Isolated showers and storms possible through this evening, mainly
near BMG
- Numerous showers and thunderstorms possible Friday afternoon
Discussion:
Predominately VFR conditions are expected through much of the period
with light winds. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are developing
this afternoon across southwest portions of central Indiana.
Convection could impact BMG so a PROB30 was added from 20Z to 01Z
later today. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out further
north, but confidence is far too low for a TAF inclusion.
More widespread showers and storms are expected Friday afternoon.
Winds may be light and variable at times through tonight before
turning south or southwesterly Friday morning.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ021-029>031-
036>042-045>049.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Melo
AVIATION...Melo
DISCUSSION...Melo/KF
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 16, 1:35 PM EDT---------------
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