ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 12, 2:05 PM EDT521
FXUS61 KILN 121805
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
205 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms
over the southeast today.
2) Warming up through mid week and then remaining above normal into
the weekend. Also, a drying trend over the next couple of days
followed by the next chance of storms at the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Elongated mid level low centered over Eastern Kentucky to slowly
track south-southeast thru the eastern TN Valley. Inverted surface
trough extends from eastern Kentucky into the upper Ohio Valley with
moderate MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/KG. This will allow diurnally driven
isold to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop - generally
along and southeast of I-71. This activity will diminish early this
evening with the loss of heating. As the influence of the mid level
low shifts farther south on Monday pcpn chances will diminish but
can not rule out an isold shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon
across Northern Kentucky and South Central Ohio.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A large anomalously strong (3 sigma) mid level high centered over
the northern Plains will extend into the Great Lakes and then shift
south into the Ohio Valley for the middle of the week. This will
result in a warming trend with temperatures rising into the lower to
mid 90s by Wednesday. Heat indices could reach the mid and upper 90s,
but probability of reaching heat advisory criteria is still low.
Large mid level low moving into eastern Canada will result in a long
wave trough across the northeastern US and eventually the Great
Lakes. Continuing to observe some model solution differences
regarding how sharp the trough is in the US.
At this time there is not much of a signal for precipitation in the
model solutions until the end of the week, but with the flow becoming
northwesterly we will have to keep monitor weak disturbances and the
potential for convection.
With slightly lower mid level heights, temperatures will be not
quite as warm from Thursday onwards, although still several degrees
above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Elongated mid level low centered over Eastern Kentucky to slowly
track south-southeast thru the eastern TN Valley. Diurnally driven
isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorms will occur along and
southeast of I-71 in the moderately unstable airmass. Have a prob30
mention at KCVG/KLUK and KILN for this threat. This activity will
diminish early this evening with the loss of heating.
Light wind flow and mainly clear skies will lead to fog development
overnight. The fog will be most prevalent in valley locations. Have
visibility restrictions at KLUK and KILN. The fog will improve
quickly Monday morning with only VFR cumulus thru the remainder of
the TAF period.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 12, 2:05 PM EDT---------------
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