Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #1586 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE [watch prob: 60%] [Most Prob: Hail: UP TO 1.25 IN, Gust: 55-70 MPH]685
ACUS11 KWNS 111734
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111734
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-112000-
Mesoscale Discussion 1586
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Areas affected...northern Arkansas into western Tennessee and
northern Mississippi
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 111734Z - 112000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms will develop this afternoon, with
corridors of damaging gusts possible.
DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough over MO will move slowly east, with
enhanced 30-40 kt midlevel westerlies from southern MO/northern AR
into KY and TN. Also evident on area VWPs are 20-25 kt 850 mb winds,
overall favoring storm clusters and a few longer-lived cells.
Visible satellite imagery and surface obs currently indicate a
boundary near the MO/AR border and extending into western KY, with
surface convergence and a differential heating zone present. Strong
heating is generating steep low-level lapse rates ahead of this
boundary, though cooler air does exist into central KY and Middle
TN.
MLCAPE should rise to 2500 J/kg across much of the area, and
persistent westerly winds should allow some recovery into Middle TN
later today. Storms will likely develop along the boundary after
19Z, and spread east/southeast with propagating outflow. At least
isolated severe gusts appear likely as storms will be coincident
with peak heating. The strongest storms may produce marginal hail
for short periods as well.
..Jewell/Smith.. 07/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...TSA...
LAT...LON 36189413 36309375 36339315 36179052 36398942 36598863
36628811 36468758 35968711 35398697 35078719 34878775
34758816 34498934 34379079 34409171 34569273 34889385
35399436 35739445 36189413
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Source:
Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #1586 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE [watch prob: 60%] [Most Prob: Hail: UP TO 1.25 IN, Gust: 55-70 MPH]---------------
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